{"auc_composite":0.4452,"composite_strategy":"auc_weighted","generated_at":"2026-09-14T05:45:07.270776+00:00","honest_caveats":["Fusion v2 method = auc_weighted, chosen by MEAN held-out AUC (0.4452) across 2 rolling-origin forward-temporal CV folds. v1 picked its strategy in-sample on the same labels it evaluated \u2014 v2 does not.","Evaluation is ROLLING-ORIGIN forward-temporal CV: each fold is fit on earlier label dates and scored on a strictly later, held-out date block. A shuffled random split would leak time-autocorrelation and inflate AUC; that mistake is deliberately avoided.","Per-fold held-out AUC ranges 0.421..0.469; the worst fold (sparse-positive late-May window) is the honest lower bound. The headline number is the mean.","The published auc_composite is the mean held-out CV number. The live per-country composite re-fits the winning method on all labels (standard once a method is selected), but the public metric stays the honest held-out figure.","Components have different time resolutions (DBSCAN/STL/burst = day, HDBSCAN = week). Each 'today' score is treated as a same-day snapshot.","'Anomalous' != 'censored'. A high composite means the day looks unusual on multiple axes; ground-truthing is still required.","Burst and HDBSCAN-drift are near-static 'current snapshot' signals applied at past label dates for evaluation, so their historical AUC is weak \u2014 DBSCAN and STL carry most of the discriminative load.","Composite renormalises weights over present detectors; a country with only 2/4 detectors still gets a composite."],"leaderboard":[{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":true,"stl":true},"composite":0.479762,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":4,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":4},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":false,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":true,"stl":true},"composite":0.463083,"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":true,"stl":false},"composite":0.457155,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":false,"hdbscan":true,"stl":true},"composite":0.426743,"country":"MY","country_name":"Malaysia","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":false,"stl":true},"composite":0.408758,"country":"BD","country_name":"Bangladesh","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":false,"stl":true},"composite":0.381576,"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3},{"agreed_3_of_4":true,"agreed_majority":true,"all4_strong_flags":{"burst":true,"dbscan":true,"hdbscan":false,"stl":true},"composite":0.276269,"country":"PT","country_name":"PT","n_all4_present":4,"n_all4_strong":3,"n_detectors_present":4,"n_detectors_strong":3}],"limit":20,"n_3of4_agree":7,"n_majority_agree":21,"n_total":102,"only_3of4":true,"schema":"voidly-fused-anomaly/v1","weights":{"burst":0.0,"dbscan":0.06857504571669719,"hdbscan":0.9314249542833029,"stl":0.0}}