{"burst":{"burst_id":"burst-2026-05-03-58cc","date":"2026-05-03","hypothesized_factor":"shared_domain:chat.openai.com","k_countries":58,"member_anomaly_scores":{"AE":6.319511,"AR":1.888459,"AU":6.487486,"BG":4.618944,"BH":4.146284,"BR":4.35672,"BY":6.244792,"CA":2.167584,"CL":2.308361,"CO":3.240483,"CU":4.86799,"DE":5.24639,"DO":1.909184,"DZ":1.886259,"EC":3.18461,"ES":7.31986,"GB":5.628436,"GE":0.979263,"GR":5.086343,"HK":4.275636,"HU":1.595072,"IL":5.131196,"IR":5.53446,"IT":6.083053,"JO":6.564358,"JP":6.666144,"KE":1.146005,"KH":2.168194,"KR":7.924343,"KZ":2.041851,"LB":2.316166,"LY":4.370541,"MA":2.284385,"ME":1.473211,"MM":0.905988,"MX":0.277412,"MY":1.817179,"OM":4.506347,"PE":2.958119,"PH":3.645694,"PK":1.604725,"PL":4.942506,"PT":7.137284,"QA":5.358999,"RO":2.634802,"RS":3.668925,"RU":2.338053,"SA":2.162498,"SG":5.005808,"TH":6.39685,"TN":5.625214,"TR":3.091234,"TW":8.109227,"UG":2.202193,"US":3.77477,"UZ":1.758217,"VN":3.054186,"ZA":5.211677},"member_base_rates":{"AE":0.2152,"AR":0.4118,"AU":0.05,"BG":0.3684,"BH":0.2,"BR":0.2927,"BY":0.1818,"CA":0.3902,"CL":0.125,"CO":0.2162,"CU":0.1458,"DE":0.125,"DO":0.6,"DZ":0.1558,"EC":0,"ES":0.1,"GB":0.2889,"GE":0.2368,"GR":0.0645,"HK":0.3333,"HU":0,"IL":0.0769,"IR":0.2875,"IT":0.1905,"JO":0.2267,"JP":0.1053,"KE":0.1842,"KH":0.1087,"KR":0.0833,"KZ":0.1154,"LB":0.2245,"LY":0.2115,"MA":0.2208,"ME":0,"MM":0.1646,"MX":0.234,"MY":0.3077,"OM":0.2157,"PE":0,"PH":0.225,"PK":0.1519,"PL":0.0938,"PT":0.0294,"QA":0.4706,"RO":0.4167,"RS":0.25,"RU":0.2593,"SA":0.1918,"SG":0.2027,"TH":0.1558,"TN":0.4118,"TR":0.2439,"TW":0.05,"UG":0,"US":0.3111,"UZ":0.1571,"VN":0.1519,"ZA":0.1538},"member_countries":["AE","AR","AU","BG","BH","BR","BY","CA","CL","CO","CU","DE","DO","DZ","EC","ES","GB","GE","GR","HK","HU","IL","IR","IT","JO","JP","KE","KH","KR","KZ","LB","LY","MA","ME","MM","MX","MY","OM","PE","PH","PK","PL","PT","QA","RO","RS","RU","SA","SG","TH","TN","TR","TW","UG","US","UZ","VN","ZA"],"p_adj":0,"p_value":0,"shared_signals":{"blocking_method_distribution":{},"domain_distribution":{"chat.openai.com":22,"chatgpt.com":20,"claude.ai":21,"gemini.google.com":20,"twitter.com":21},"modal_blocking_method":null,"modal_domain":"chat.openai.com","modal_signal_type":"outage","signal_type_distribution":{"blocking":52,"dns-blocking":317,"http-blocking-tcp-reset":85,"outage":1241,"tor-blocking":18},"source_distribution":{"censoredplanet":420,"ioda":1241,"ooni":82}},"significant_at_005":true},"country_names":{"AE":"AE","AR":"AR","AU":"AU","BG":"Bulgaria","BH":"Bahrain","BR":"Brazil","BY":"Belarus","CA":"CA","CL":"CL","CO":"Colombia","CU":"Cuba","DE":"DE","DO":"DO","DZ":"Algeria","EC":"EC","ES":"ES","GB":"GB","GE":"GE","GR":"GR","HK":"HK","HU":"Hungary","IL":"Israel","IR":"Iran","IT":"Italy","JO":"JO","JP":"JP","KE":"Kenya","KH":"KH","KR":"South Korea","KZ":"Kazakhstan","LB":"Lebanon","LY":"LY","MA":"Morocco","ME":"ME","MM":"Myanmar","MX":"Mexico","MY":"Malaysia","OM":"OM","PE":"Peru","PH":"Philippines","PK":"Pakistan","PL":"Poland","PT":"PT","QA":"QA","RO":"RO","RS":"Serbia","RU":"Russia","SA":"Saudi Arabia","SG":"SG","TH":"Thailand","TN":"TN","TR":"Turkey","TW":"TW","UG":"Uganda","US":"United States","UZ":"Uzbekistan","VN":"Vietnam","ZA":"ZA"},"generated_at":"2026-05-22T05:31:09.190929Z","honest_caveats":["Co-occurrence is NOT causation and NOT proof of coordination.","The brief asked for 6-hour bucketing, but upstream evidence observed_at is day-granularity, so buckets collapse to single days.","Per-country flip rates are assumed INDEPENDENT, which is wrong in practice (neighbors correlate). Bonferroni p_adj is a conservative bound, not a causal-test result.","Underlying DBSCAN AUC is 0.6506 — noisy. Treat bursts as exploration hooks, not alerts.","Days with < {MIN_MEAS_PER_DAY} measurements are skipped, biasing toward high-coverage countries."],"model_meta":{"dbscan_min_samples":3,"dbscan_window_days":45,"eps_quantile":0.75,"min_meas_per_day":5,"p_value_model":"Under independence per-country flip rates (90d empirical), p_event = product of member rates; p_any = 1 - (1 - p_event)^N_days; p_adj = min(1, p_any * N_days) (Bonferroni).","promote_floor":">= 3 bursts in 90d AND >= 1 burst with p_adj < 0.05; otherwise shipped as exploratory only."},"schema":"voidly-anomaly-bursts/v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. 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