{"baselines_definition":{"always_one":"predict_proba=1; recall=1, precision=base_rate","always_zero":"predict_proba=0; trivial F1=0 baseline","base_rate_constant":"predict_proba=train_pos_rate; well-calibrated, no resolution","country_base_rate":"predict_proba=country's historical positive rate; no temporal signal","predict_yesterday":"predict_proba=y[t-1] per (country, ...) group; tough on autocorrelated targets","random_with_base_rate":"Bernoulli sample with p=base_rate; sanity floor"},"generated_at":"2026-07-02T04:45:06+00:00","honest_caveats":["Lift is computed against the predict_yesterday baseline (lag-1 of the label within each country group). This is the toughest trivial baseline on autocorrelated targets like 'will country X be in shutdown next week'.","Some models report training-time sidecar metrics (random or stratified CV) and we compute baselines on a separate last-60d temporal holdout. Lift numbers in those rows are approximate, NOT a clean apples-to-apples test. Look at the `source` field per row to see which are live re-eval.","AUC of None on always_zero / always_one is by design (degenerate constants); those rows still have F1 + Brier.","barely_beats_baseline=true is a yellow flag, not red. Some models (e.g. classifier_v3.3) have legitimate value beyond F1 lift (per-country thresholds, conformal intervals, SHAP attributions).","Per-platform/domain/method are a random sample of 5 each, seeded 20260521 for reproducibility. Re-running will pick the same items."],"n_models":23,"n_rows_filtered":1,"rows":[{"barely_beats_baseline":true,"barely_beats_metric":"f1","baseline_metrics":{"always_one":{"auc":null,"brier":0.8015873015873016,"f1":0.33112582781456956},"always_zero":{"auc":null,"brier":0.1984126984126984,"f1":0},"base_rate_constant":{"auc":0.5,"base_rate":0.08175363168523224,"best_threshold":0.05,"brier":0.1726544373710134,"f1":0.33112582781456956},"country_base_rate":{"auc":0.6682376237623763,"best_threshold":0.1,"brier":0.16694511227963332,"f1":0.45901639344262296},"predict_yesterday":{"auc":0.9525940594059406,"best_threshold":0.05,"brier":0.03015873015873016,"f1":0.924,"note":"lag-1 of label within each (country, ...) group; falls back to global lag-1 if grouping unavailable"},"random_with_base_rate":{"auc":0.511920792079208,"brier":0.24444444444444444,"f1":0.14917127071823205}},"family":"forecast","honest_caveats":["Model F1 beats predict_yesterday by less than 5.0pp (lift=-0.59pp). Honest reading: the model is mostly memorizing the prior."],"horizon":"7d","lift_vs_predict_yesterday":{"auc_pp":3.8039603960396073,"brier_pp":-0.19034674746284364,"f1_pp":-0.5904761904761968},"model_id":"forecast_7day","model_metrics":{"auc":0.9906336633663366,"best_threshold":0.25,"brier":0.032062197633358595,"f1":0.9180952380952381,"n":1260,"pos_rate":0.1984126984126984},"notes":"XGBoost + isotonic calibrator. Train base rate 0.082; holdout pos rate 0.198","source":"live re-eval on temporal holdout (1260 rows, last 60 days)"}],"schema":"voidly-baseline-benchmark/v1","summary":{"barely_beats_threshold_pp_f1":5,"best_model_by_lift":{"family":"per-domain","lift_metric":"auc","lift_pp":50.74168797953964,"model_id":"per_domain_pornhub.com"},"n_models_barely_beating_baseline":7,"n_models_evaluated":23,"toughest_baseline":"predict_yesterday","worst_model_by_lift":{"family":"trajectory","lift_metric":"auc","lift_pp":-22.776121004076366,"model_id":"trajectory_d30"}},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}