{"cohort_sizes":{"C1_democracy":17,"C3_authoritarian":33},"current_snapshot_at":"2026-10-01T06:00:05.691145+00:00","generated_at":"2026-10-01T06:00:05.691145+00:00","honest_caveats":["DTW silhouette on the 90d window is typically 0.30-0.50 \u2014 modest, not strong. Cohorts overlap.","A cohort shift can be data-driven (volume of evidence collected) rather than regime-driven. Treat as a SIGNAL TO INVESTIGATE, not a verdict.","Monthly cadence may miss faster transitions (e.g., a multi-week shutdown that resolves before the next snapshot).","Labels {democracy, bursty, authoritarian} are derived from anchor-set overlap + centroid burstiness; they encode our prior, not ground truth.","First snapshot has no previous \u2014 migrations list is empty on initial run."],"migrations":[{"confidence":0.6161,"country":"IQ","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":3},{"confidence":0.6084,"country":"UA","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":3},{"confidence":0.5571,"country":"NG","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":3},{"confidence":0.5619,"country":"DZ","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.5222,"country":"MA","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.5051,"country":"QA","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.4971,"country":"JO","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.4837,"country":"LY","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.4728,"country":"OM","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.5681,"country":"TH","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C2_bursty","severity_delta":1},{"confidence":0.4878,"country":"VN","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C2_bursty","severity_delta":1}],"n_migrations_total":11,"n_returned":11,"previous_snapshot_at":"2026-09-01T06:00:03.849879+00:00","schema":"voidly-cohort-migration/v1","selected_k":3,"silhouette":0.3939,"window_days":90}