{"cohort_labels":{"C1_democracy":"Low burst ratio, dominated by democracy-anchor countries (US/GB/DE/FR/CA/...)","C2_bursty":"Spiky centroid (>=10% of days >1.5 sigma above mean), no strong anchor dominance","C3_authoritarian":"Dominated by authoritarian-anchor countries (CN/RU/IR/MM/KP/...) and/or high persistent volume","C4_other":"Fallback for clusters matching none of the above heuristics"},"current_run":{"cluster_labels":{"1":"C3_authoritarian_a","2":"C1_democracy","3":"C3_authoritarian_b"},"cohort_sizes":{"C1_democracy":17,"C3_authoritarian":33},"country_to_label":{"AE":"C3_authoritarian_a","AU":"C1_democracy","AZ":"C3_authoritarian_a","BD":"C3_authoritarian_a","BR":"C1_democracy","BY":"C3_authoritarian_a","CA":"C1_democracy","CN":"C3_authoritarian_a","DE":"C1_democracy","DZ":"C3_authoritarian_a","EG":"C3_authoritarian_a","ES":"C1_democracy","ET":"C3_authoritarian_a","FI":"C1_democracy","FR":"C1_democracy","GB":"C1_democracy","HN":"C3_authoritarian_b","ID":"C3_authoritarian_b","IN":"C1_democracy","IQ":"C3_authoritarian_b","IR":"C3_authoritarian_b","JO":"C3_authoritarian_a","JP":"C1_democracy","KR":"C1_democracy","KW":"C3_authoritarian_b","KZ":"C3_authoritarian_a","LY":"C3_authoritarian_a","MA":"C3_authoritarian_a","MM":"C3_authoritarian_a","MX":"C1_democracy","MY":"C3_authoritarian_a","NG":"C3_authoritarian_b","NL":"C1_democracy","OM":"C3_authoritarian_a","PK":"C3_authoritarian_a","QA":"C3_authoritarian_a","RU":"C3_authoritarian_b","SA":"C3_authoritarian_a","SE":"C1_democracy","SG":"C1_democracy","SY":"C3_authoritarian_a","TH":"C3_authoritarian_b","TR":"C3_authoritarian_b","TZ":"C3_authoritarian_b","UA":"C3_authoritarian_b","US":"C1_democracy","UZ":"C3_authoritarian_a","VE":"C3_authoritarian_a","VN":"C3_authoritarian_a","ZA":"C1_democracy"},"selected_k":3,"silhouette":0.3939,"silhouette_by_k":{"3":0.3939,"4":0.3855,"5":0.3779,"6":0.3761},"snapshot_at":"2026-10-01T06:00:05.691145+00:00"},"direction_keys":{"deteriorating":"Country moved toward a more-censored cohort (severity_delta > 0)","improving":"Country moved toward a less-censored cohort (severity_delta < 0)","lateral":"Country moved between cohorts of equal severity rank"},"generated_at":"2026-10-01T06:00:05.691145+00:00","honest_caveats":["DTW silhouette on the 90d window is typically 0.30-0.50 \u2014 modest, not strong. Cohorts overlap.","A cohort shift can be data-driven (volume of evidence collected) rather than regime-driven. Treat as a SIGNAL TO INVESTIGATE, not a verdict.","Monthly cadence may miss faster transitions (e.g., a multi-week shutdown that resolves before the next snapshot).","Labels {democracy, bursty, authoritarian} are derived from anchor-set overlap + centroid burstiness; they encode our prior, not ground truth.","First snapshot has no previous \u2014 migrations list is empty on initial run."],"input":{"dtw_window":30,"k_range":[3,6],"normalization":"7d rolling mean -> per-country z-score","signal_filter":"evidence.signal_level in (elevated,critical) OR signal_type in (block,interference,outage,throttle)","top_n_actual":50,"top_n_requested":50,"window_days":90},"method":"dtw-ward + semantic anchor labeling","n_history_snapshots":7,"previous_snapshot_at":"2026-09-01T06:00:03.849879+00:00","schema":"voidly-cohort-migration-info/v1","severity_rank":{"C1_democracy":1,"C2_bursty":3,"C3_authoritarian":4,"C4_other":2},"version":"v1"}