{"cohort_sizes":{"C1_democracy":20,"C2_bursty":3,"C3_authoritarian":19,"C4_other":8},"current_snapshot_at":"2026-09-01T06:00:03.849879+00:00","generated_at":"2026-09-01T06:00:03.849879+00:00","honest_caveats":["DTW silhouette on the 90d window is typically 0.30-0.50 \u2014 modest, not strong. Cohorts overlap.","A cohort shift can be data-driven (volume of evidence collected) rather than regime-driven. Treat as a SIGNAL TO INVESTIGATE, not a verdict.","Monthly cadence may miss faster transitions (e.g., a multi-week shutdown that resolves before the next snapshot).","Labels {democracy, bursty, authoritarian} are derived from anchor-set overlap + centroid burstiness; they encode our prior, not ground truth.","First snapshot has no previous \u2014 migrations list is empty on initial run."],"migrations":[{"confidence":0.5395,"country":"SY","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":3},{"confidence":0.6176,"country":"IT","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C2_bursty","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.5643,"country":"ET","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.5416,"country":"BY","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.4898,"country":"VE","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C3_authoritarian","old_cohort":"C4_other","severity_delta":2},{"confidence":0.4989,"country":"DZ","direction":"deteriorating","new_cohort":"C4_other","old_cohort":"C1_democracy","severity_delta":1}],"n_migrations_total":15,"n_returned":6,"previous_snapshot_at":"2026-08-01T06:00:02.752595+00:00","schema":"voidly-cohort-migration/v1","selected_k":5,"silhouette":0.421,"window_days":90}