{"event":{"access_now_first_seen":null,"access_now_url":null,"cloudflare_first_seen":"2026-04-24","cloudflare_url":"https://radar.cloudflare.com/lb","country":"LB","country_name":"Lebanon","earliest_competitor":"cloudflare","earliest_competitor_date":"2026-04-24","event_date":"2026-04-24","event_id":"lebanon-bgp-2026-04","honest_caveats":["Access Now / #KeepItOn: no public press release found.","NetBlocks: no public report URL found."],"lead_days":7,"netblocks_first_seen":null,"netblocks_url":null,"notes":"Voidly forecast crossed alert threshold on 04-17, a full 6.5 days before the BGP withdrawal was visible on Cloudflare Radar (04-24). This is our flagship live-detection case study.","outcome":"voidly_led","title":"Lebanon BGP outage / connectivity disruption","voidly_backfilled":false,"voidly_first_seen":"2026-04-17","voidly_incident_id":"LB-2026-0001-forecast","voidly_incident_verified":false,"voidly_method":"forecast-threshold-cross","voidly_url":"https://voidly.ai/atlas/case-studies/lebanon-bgp-april-2026"},"generated_at":"2026-09-15T04:15:02+00:00","honest_caveats_global":["Lead/lag is measured publication-vs-publication, NOT internal detection time. All three competing orgs (Cloudflare, Access Now, NetBlocks) almost certainly detect events earlier than they publish.","Most entries are flagged as `voidly_backfilled: true` \u2014 meaning the DB row was created from historical OONI archive ingestion, not a live Voidly pipeline detection. Those do NOT support a real-time lead-time claim. The single non-backfilled case is Lebanon BGP April 2026.","Cloudflare Radar's public event browser doesn't go back before ~2021 for many event types \u2014 events earlier than that show no cloudflare_url available.","Access Now and NetBlocks URLs are best-effort public references. They have not been programmatically scraped \u2014 they are hand-curated.","This list is intentionally biased toward LANDMARK events. It is NOT a statistical sample of all incidents. Use the /v1/atlas/prediction-track-record endpoint for the live, non-cherry-picked accuracy numbers."],"schema":"voidly-competitive-benchmark/v1"}