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temporal classifier; primary horizon=7d.","Trained on 17622 rows, tested on 9306 rows in last 45d window.","Each row is a (trigger_event, follower_country, horizon) tuple \u2014 same trigger appears N-follower times per horizon, so AUC is not strictly per-event but per-pair.","did_follow=1 includes ANY censorship/mixed event in the follower country within H days, which may be coincidental rather than causal contagion. Model can only learn that the joint distribution shifts after the trigger, not establish causality.","Top-chains are TEST-SET averages \u2014 they reflect what the model PREDICTS, not what necessarily WILL happen. Use as a forecast prior, not a ground truth.","Sparse positive class (~18% at 7d horizon) means precision @ high-confidence cutoffs is noisy \u2014 recommend using the score as a relative ranking, not an absolute probability."],"horizon_days":7,"model":"pairwise-xgboost","n_followers_scored":33,"trained_at":"2026-05-21T14:25:41.860469Z","trigger":"IR","version":"1.0"}