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Model can only learn that the joint distribution shifts after the trigger, not establish causality.","Top-chains are TEST-SET averages \u2014 they reflect what the model PREDICTS, not what necessarily WILL happen. Use as a forecast prior, not a ground truth.","Sparse positive class (~18% at 7d horizon) means precision @ high-confidence cutoffs is noisy \u2014 recommend using the score as a relative ranking, not an absolute probability."],"horizon_days":7,"model":"pairwise-xgboost","n_followers_scored":33,"trained_at":"2026-05-21T14:25:41.860469Z","trigger":"RU","version":"1.0"}