{"active_triggers":[{"country":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"generated_at":"2026-05-22T18:17:02.869887+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently — this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":2,"n_candidates_scored":32,"schema":"voidly-live-contagion-watchlist/v1","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"},"version":"1.0","watchlist":[{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.9605,"pair_coevents_365d":27,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.9116,"pair_coevents_365d":28,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0482,"base_rate_daily":0.01606,"country":"JO","follower_events_30d":6,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.9965,"score":0.9483},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.8356,"pair_coevents_365d":24,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.7139,"pair_coevents_365d":26,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0585,"base_rate_daily":0.0195,"country":"TZ","follower_events_30d":6,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.953,"score":0.8945},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.8161,"pair_coevents_365d":24,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.6284,"pair_coevents_365d":28,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0378,"base_rate_daily":0.01261,"country":"EG","follower_events_30d":4,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.9317,"score":0.8938},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.8504,"pair_coevents_365d":30,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.7657,"pair_coevents_365d":30,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0757,"base_rate_daily":0.02523,"country":"UZ","follower_events_30d":6,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.9649,"score":0.8893},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.4577,"pair_coevents_365d":0,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":true,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.4075,"pair_coevents_365d":1,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0069,"base_rate_daily":0.00229,"country":"IN","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.6787,"score":0.6718},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.4493,"pair_coevents_365d":18,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2675,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0206,"base_rate_daily":0.00688,"country":"MM","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.5966,"score":0.576},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.3776,"pair_coevents_365d":20,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2535,"pair_coevents_365d":18,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0241,"base_rate_daily":0.00803,"country":"IR","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.5354,"score":0.5113},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.3147,"pair_coevents_365d":21,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.226,"pair_coevents_365d":20,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0103,"base_rate_daily":0.00344,"country":"DZ","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.4696,"score":0.4593},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.2063,"pair_coevents_365d":23,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":true,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0937,"pair_coevents_365d":22,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0138,"base_rate_daily":0.00459,"country":"BD","follower_events_30d":1,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.2807,"score":0.2669},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.1652,"pair_coevents_365d":17,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1101,"pair_coevents_365d":20,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0206,"base_rate_daily":0.00688,"country":"QA","follower_events_30d":1,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.2571,"score":0.2365},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.1161,"pair_coevents_365d":3,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1035,"pair_coevents_365d":2,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0069,"base_rate_daily":0.00229,"country":"TR","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.2076,"score":0.2007},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.1059,"pair_coevents_365d":11,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0787,"pair_coevents_365d":7,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0172,"base_rate_daily":0.00573,"country":"SA","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.1763,"score":0.1591},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.102,"pair_coevents_365d":11,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0765,"pair_coevents_365d":6,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0206,"base_rate_daily":0.00688,"country":"AE","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.1707,"score":0.1501},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.1112,"pair_coevents_365d":19,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0625,"pair_coevents_365d":21,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0172,"base_rate_daily":0.00573,"country":"KZ","follower_events_30d":1,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.1667,"score":0.1496},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.0973,"pair_coevents_365d":10,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0614,"pair_coevents_365d":11,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-05-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0138,"base_rate_daily":0.00459,"country":"KW","follower_events_30d":0,"n_active_triggers":2,"noisy_or":0.1527,"score":0.139}],"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}