{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.4783,"pair_coevents_365d":21,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"NG","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3625,"pair_coevents_365d":68,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CN","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3569,"pair_coevents_365d":157,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"BY","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3567,"pair_coevents_365d":86,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CU","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3504,"pair_coevents_365d":196,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"EG","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3462,"pair_coevents_365d":102,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VN","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3313,"pair_coevents_365d":208,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3284,"pair_coevents_365d":183,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"IR","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3221,"pair_coevents_365d":84,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"TZ","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3194,"pair_coevents_365d":216,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"RU","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.31,"pair_coevents_365d":168,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AE","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2954,"pair_coevents_365d":208,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":true,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2736,"pair_coevents_365d":90,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"KH","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2637,"pair_coevents_365d":107,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2624,"pair_coevents_365d":171,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"MM","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.2743,"base_rate_daily":0.09145,"country":"BD","follower_events_30d":14,"generated_at":"2026-10-03T12:17:03.942397+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":15,"noisy_or":0.9977,"rank":3,"score":0.7233,"status":"on_watchlist","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"}}