{"attribution": [{"p_follow_3d": 0.3425, "pair_coevents_365d": 88, "same_auth_cluster": true, "same_region": false, "trigger": "VE", "trigger_date": "2026-10-25T12:20:00"}, {"p_follow_3d": 0.1475, "pair_coevents_365d": 104, "same_auth_cluster": true, "same_region": false, "trigger": "RU", "trigger_date": "2026-10-25T22:30:00"}, {"p_follow_3d": 0.1229, "pair_coevents_365d": 99, "same_auth_cluster": true, "same_region": false, "trigger": "MM", "trigger_date": "2026-10-25T08:35:00"}], "base_prior_3d": 0.2097, "base_rate_daily": 0.0699, "country": "CN", "follower_events_30d": 10, "generated_at": "2026-10-27T06:17:07.980242+00:00", "honest_caveats": ["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).", "24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.", "A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).", "Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.", "Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.", "Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.", "With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."], "horizon_days": 3, "n_active_triggers": 3, "noisy_or": 0.5084, "rank": 23, "score": 0.2987, "status": "on_watchlist", "trigger_window_hours": 48, "underlying_model": {"name": "contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)", "primary_horizon_auc_h7": 0.6696949571962517, "sidecar": "[internal path]"}}