{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.4945,"pair_coevents_365d":72,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"SG","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T20:52:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.4652,"pair_coevents_365d":61,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":true,"trigger":"TR","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T00:20:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2854,"pair_coevents_365d":82,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"BD","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T13:10:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.4878,"base_rate_daily":0.1626,"country":"IR","follower_events_30d":31,"generated_at":"2026-09-11T00:17:02.740601+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.8068,"rank":22,"score":0.319,"status":"on_watchlist","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"}}