{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.0355,"pair_coevents_365d":110,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"RU","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.034,"pair_coevents_365d":83,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AE","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0335,"pair_coevents_365d":104,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0329,"pair_coevents_365d":56,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0328,"pair_coevents_365d":74,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"MM","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0322,"pair_coevents_365d":78,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0322,"pair_coevents_365d":78,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-09-20T14:50:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0317,"pair_coevents_365d":105,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0291,"pair_coevents_365d":95,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"EG","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.029,"pair_coevents_365d":57,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"JO","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0283,"pair_coevents_365d":40,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CU","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0274,"pair_coevents_365d":80,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"IR","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0267,"pair_coevents_365d":36,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CN","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.0255,"pair_coevents_365d":75,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"BY","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.0241,"base_rate_daily":0.00804,"country":"RW","follower_events_30d":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-22T12:17:03.314157+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":14,"noisy_or":0.3544,"rank":18,"score":0.3303,"status":"on_watchlist","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"}}