{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.3264,"pair_coevents_365d":21,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"NG","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1855,"pair_coevents_365d":101,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VN","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1829,"pair_coevents_365d":182,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"IR","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1829,"pair_coevents_365d":84,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"TZ","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1819,"pair_coevents_365d":213,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"RU","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1813,"pair_coevents_365d":207,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1772,"pair_coevents_365d":194,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"EG","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1729,"pair_coevents_365d":206,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1708,"pair_coevents_365d":68,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CN","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1672,"pair_coevents_365d":86,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"CU","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1637,"pair_coevents_365d":89,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"KH","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1631,"pair_coevents_365d":156,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"BY","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.158,"pair_coevents_365d":107,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1538,"pair_coevents_365d":168,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"AE","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.1496,"pair_coevents_365d":171,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"MM","trigger_date":"2026-10-02T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.1849,"base_rate_daily":0.06163,"country":"SY","follower_events_30d":19,"generated_at":"2026-10-03T18:17:09.883188+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":15,"noisy_or":0.9511,"rank":1,"score":0.7662,"status":"on_watchlist","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"}}