{"active_triggers":[{"country":"MY","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T20:52:00"},{"country":"SG","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T20:52:00"},{"country":"BD","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T13:10:00"},{"country":"TR","trigger_date":"2026-09-09T00:20:00"}],"country":"TR","generated_at":"2026-09-11T00:17:02.740601+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"message":"TR is in the active-triggers set for the current window and is excluded from the follower watchlist.","status":"is_active_trigger"}