{"active_triggers":[{"country":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"country":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"country":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"}],"generated_at":"2026-07-07T18:17:02.568226+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently — this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"horizon_days":3,"n_active_triggers":3,"n_candidates_scored":31,"schema":"voidly-live-contagion-watchlist/v1","trigger_window_hours":48,"underlying_model":{"name":"contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)","primary_horizon_auc_h7":0.6696949571962517,"sidecar":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"},"version":"1.0","watchlist":[{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.6143,"pair_coevents_365d":38,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.5538,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.4261,"pair_coevents_365d":72,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.1242,"base_rate_daily":0.04139,"country":"MM","follower_events_30d":12,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.9012,"score":0.7771},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.7872,"pair_coevents_365d":39,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.693,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.6429,"pair_coevents_365d":73,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.2026,"base_rate_daily":0.06754,"country":"UZ","follower_events_30d":14,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.9767,"score":0.7741},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.5916,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.5719,"pair_coevents_365d":38,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.3805,"pair_coevents_365d":72,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.1242,"base_rate_daily":0.04139,"country":"JO","follower_events_30d":9,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.8917,"score":0.7675},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.583,"pair_coevents_365d":38,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.4433,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":true,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.391,"pair_coevents_365d":72,"same_auth_cluster":true,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.1307,"base_rate_daily":0.04357,"country":"QA","follower_events_30d":10,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.8586,"score":0.7279},{"attribution":[{"p_follow_3d":0.5908,"pair_coevents_365d":39,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-07-05T19:10:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.5458,"pair_coevents_365d":9,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"},{"p_follow_3d":0.2965,"pair_coevents_365d":73,"same_auth_cluster":false,"same_region":false,"trigger":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-07-06T00:00:00"}],"base_prior_3d":0.1569,"base_rate_daily":0.05229,"country":"BD","follower_events_30d":13,"n_active_triggers":3,"noisy_or":0.8692,"score":0.7124}],"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}