{"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","generated_at":"2026-10-03T20:50:19.235412","headline_one_line":"Ethiopia is currently in the LOW band with a 7-day peak forecast of 6%","license":"CC-BY-4.0","markdown":"## Ethiopia censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: LOW** \u2014 6% max forecast over the next 7 days.\n\n90% conformal interval: [0%, 41%].\n\nTop model drivers: `week_of_year` (\u2193 0.072), `month` (\u2193 0.032), `blocked_count_roll7_mean` (\u2193 0.020).\n\nNo new incidents in the last 24 hours; 9 over the past 7 days.\n\nMost recent: [ET-2026-0770](https://voidly.ai/incident/ET-2026-0770) \u2014 Internet connectivity disruption in Ethiopia (severity critical, observed 2026-10-02T08:15:00Z).\n\nUpcoming event drivers: Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 26d; Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d; Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d; Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 29d; Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d.\n\n\n\nSee [/atlas/forecast/et](/atlas/forecast/et) for the full calibrated forecast, [/sentinel/backtest/et](/sentinel/backtest/et) for the prediction history, and [/et](/et) for the country profile.","note":"Human-readable explanation stitched from forecast + incidents + SHAP + outcomes data. Designed for AI agents and journalists who want a quotable paragraph instead of raw JSON.","schema":"voidly-atlas-explain/v1","sources":{"endpoints_called":["predict_risk","incidents_table","sentinel_forecasts"]},"structured":{"avg_risk":0.024,"interval_90":[0.0,0.409],"key_drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 26d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 29d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"last_incident":{"first_seen":"2026-10-02T08:15:00Z","id":"ET-2026-0770","severity":"critical","title":"Internet connectivity disruption in Ethiopia"},"max_risk":0.059,"max_risk_day":7,"recent_incidents_24h":0,"recent_incidents_7d":9,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0721,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0319,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0197,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}],"trend_7d_delta":-0.0287}}