{"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","generated_at":"2026-10-03T20:50:13.061848","headline_one_line":"Iran is currently in the LOW band with a 7-day peak forecast of 4%","license":"CC-BY-4.0","markdown":"## Iran censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: LOW** \u2014 4% max forecast over the next 7 days.\n\n90% conformal interval: [0%, 39%].\n\nTop model drivers: `week_of_year` (\u2193 0.173), `critical_incident_7d` (\u2191 0.085), `month` (\u2193 0.051).\n\nRisk trending down: forecast moved -20 percentage points over the last week.\n\nNo new incidents in the last 24 hours; 12 over the past 7 days.\n\nMost recent: [IR-2026-2493](https://voidly.ai/incident/IR-2026-2493) \u2014 Internet connectivity disruption in Iran (severity critical, observed 2026-10-02T03:10:00Z).\n\n\n\nSee [/atlas/forecast/ir](/atlas/forecast/ir) for the full calibrated forecast, [/sentinel/backtest/ir](/sentinel/backtest/ir) for the prediction history, and [/ir](/ir) for the country profile.","note":"Human-readable explanation stitched from forecast + incidents + SHAP + outcomes data. Designed for AI agents and journalists who want a quotable paragraph instead of raw JSON.","schema":"voidly-atlas-explain/v1","sources":{"endpoints_called":["predict_risk","incidents_table","sentinel_forecasts"]},"structured":{"avg_risk":0.021,"interval_90":[0.0,0.38799999999999996],"key_drivers":[],"last_incident":{"first_seen":"2026-10-02T03:10:00Z","id":"IR-2026-2493","severity":"critical","title":"Internet connectivity disruption in Iran"},"max_risk":0.038,"max_risk_day":7,"recent_incidents_24h":0,"recent_incidents_7d":12,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1735,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0854,"direction":"up","name":"critical_incident_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0506,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"}],"trend_7d_delta":-0.2}}