{"country":"NG","country_name":"Nigeria","generated_at":"2026-10-03T20:50:13.009771","headline_one_line":"Nigeria is currently in the LOW band with a 7-day peak forecast of 5%","license":"CC-BY-4.0","markdown":"## Nigeria censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: LOW** \u2014 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.\n\n90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].\n\nTop model drivers: `block_rate_roll7_mean` (\u2193 0.073), `week_of_year` (\u2193 0.032), `block_rate_roll7_std` (\u2193 0.023).\n\n**1 incident** detected in the last 24 hours (10 in the last 7 days).\n\nMost recent: [NG-2026-0203](https://voidly.ai/incident/NG-2026-0203) \u2014 Internet connectivity disruption in Nigeria (severity critical, observed 2026-10-03T06:00:00Z).\n\n\n\nSee [/atlas/forecast/ng](/atlas/forecast/ng) for the full calibrated forecast, [/sentinel/backtest/ng](/sentinel/backtest/ng) for the prediction history, and [/ng](/ng) for the country profile.","note":"Human-readable explanation stitched from forecast + incidents + SHAP + outcomes data. Designed for AI agents and journalists who want a quotable paragraph instead of raw JSON.","schema":"voidly-atlas-explain/v1","sources":{"endpoints_called":["predict_risk","incidents_table","sentinel_forecasts"]},"structured":{"avg_risk":0.019,"interval_90":[0.0,0.39799999999999996],"key_drivers":[],"last_incident":{"first_seen":"2026-10-03T06:00:00Z","id":"NG-2026-0203","severity":"critical","title":"Internet connectivity disruption in Nigeria"},"max_risk":0.048,"max_risk_day":7,"recent_incidents_24h":1,"recent_incidents_7d":10,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0727,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0318,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0232,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}],"trend_7d_delta":-0.0082}}