{"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","generated_at":"2026-09-20T23:58:11.346680","headline_one_line":"Syria is currently in the LOW band with a 7-day peak forecast of 4%","license":"CC-BY-4.0","markdown":"## Syria censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: LOW** \u2014 4% max forecast over the next 7 days.\n\n90% conformal interval: [0%, 39%].\n\nTop model drivers: `month` (\u2193 0.042), `block_rate_roll7_std` (\u2193 0.032), `blocked_count_roll7_mean` (\u2193 0.026).\n\n**Risk trending UP**: forecast moved +13 percentage points over the last week.\n\nNo new incidents in the last 24 hours; 9 over the past 7 days.\n\nMost recent: [SY-2026-0878](https://voidly.ai/incident/SY-2026-0878) \u2014 Censorship detected in SY (severity critical, observed 2026-09-19T00:00:00Z).\n\n\n\nSee [/atlas/forecast/sy](/atlas/forecast/sy) for the full calibrated forecast, [/sentinel/backtest/sy](/sentinel/backtest/sy) for the prediction history, and [/sy](/sy) for the country profile.","note":"Human-readable explanation stitched from forecast + incidents + SHAP + outcomes data. Designed for AI agents and journalists who want a quotable paragraph instead of raw JSON.","schema":"voidly-atlas-explain/v1","sources":{"endpoints_called":["predict_risk","incidents_table","sentinel_forecasts"]},"structured":{"avg_risk":0.018,"interval_90":[0.0,0.38999999999999996],"key_drivers":[],"last_incident":{"first_seen":"2026-09-19T00:00:00Z","id":"SY-2026-0878","severity":"critical","title":"Censorship detected in SY"},"max_risk":0.04,"max_risk_day":5,"recent_incidents_24h":0,"recent_incidents_7d":9,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0419,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0321,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0257,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}],"trend_7d_delta":0.1343}}