{"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:30:18.132395","headline_one_line":"Turkey is currently in the WATCH band with a 7-day peak forecast of 27%","license":"CC-BY-4.0","markdown":"## Turkey censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: WATCH** \u2014 27% max forecast over the next 7 days.\n\n90% conformal interval: [0%, 62%].\n\nTop model drivers: `week_of_year` (\u2193 0.129), `month` (\u2193 0.046), `incident_count_7d` (\u2191 0.024).\n\nNo new incidents in the last 24 hours; 3 over the past 7 days.\n\nMost recent: [TR-2026-0342](https://voidly.ai/incident/TR-2026-0342) \u2014 Internet censorship detected in Turkey (severity critical, observed 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z).\n\n\n\nSee [/atlas/forecast/tr](/atlas/forecast/tr) for the full calibrated forecast, [/sentinel/backtest/tr](/sentinel/backtest/tr) for the prediction history, and [/tr](/tr) for the country profile.","note":"Human-readable explanation stitched from forecast + incidents + SHAP + outcomes data. Designed for AI agents and journalists who want a quotable paragraph instead of raw JSON.","schema":"voidly-atlas-explain/v1","sources":{"endpoints_called":["predict_risk","incidents_table","sentinel_forecasts"]},"structured":{"avg_risk":0.241,"interval_90":[0.0,0.616],"key_drivers":[],"last_incident":{"first_seen":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","id":"TR-2026-0342","severity":"critical","title":"Internet censorship detected in Turkey"},"max_risk":0.266,"max_risk_day":7,"recent_incidents_24h":0,"recent_incidents_7d":3,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1294,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0456,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0235,"direction":"up","name":"incident_count_7d","source":"model"}],"trend_7d_delta":0.0278}}