{"count":30,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:19:24.787676","methodology":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (with curated risk-tier floor) + 20% 30-day avg forecast + 15% current 7-day max_risk + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x vs disruptions (0.3x). Confidence is a separate field. Grades: A 0-20, B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","note":"v2 fixes v1's change-vs-level bug. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) now score high based on their 12-month baseline + curated risk tier. v1 remains live at /v1/atlas/score for backward compatibility.","results":[{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":42.16,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":14.25,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":0.0,"country":"GB","country_name":"GB","grade":"F","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":42.16,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":48.0,"forecast_30d_avg":0.7132,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.95,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":6,"incidents_12m_disruption":100,"incidents_12m_total":106,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":4,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":78.3},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.19,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","grade":"F","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":57.62,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":203.1,"forecast_30d_avg":0.6697,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.279,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":61,"incidents_12m_disruption":67,"incidents_12m_total":128,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":7,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 21d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 24d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 22d"],"risk_tier":0},"score":76.1},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.12,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","grade":"F","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":67.6,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":511.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.6128,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.275,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":155,"incidents_12m_disruption":156,"incidents_12m_total":311,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":7,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":76.1},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.05,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","grade":"F","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":69.66,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":619.2,"forecast_30d_avg":0.6533,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.27,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":201,"incidents_12m_disruption":54,"incidents_12m_total":255,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":9,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":76.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":3.9,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","grade":"F","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":69.31,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":50.0,"base_weighted_score":599.1,"forecast_30d_avg":0.5808,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.26,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":189,"incidents_12m_disruption":107,"incidents_12m_total":296,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":8,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":4},"score":75.8},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.12,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":67.18,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":40.0,"base_weighted_score":492.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.711,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.275,"historical_outcomes":167,"incidents_12m_censorship":163,"incidents_12m_disruption":11,"incidents_12m_total":174,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":6,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":3},"score":74.1},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.12,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"IN","country_name":"India","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":59.6,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":243.9,"forecast_30d_avg":0.3378,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.275,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":73,"incidents_12m_disruption":83,"incidents_12m_total":156,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":3,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":74.1},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.04,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"CN","country_name":"China","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":58.88,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":50.0,"base_weighted_score":228.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.309,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.269,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":72,"incidents_12m_disruption":41,"incidents_12m_total":113,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":8,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":4},"score":74.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.04,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":59.07,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":232.2,"forecast_30d_avg":0.3367,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.269,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":72,"incidents_12m_disruption":54,"incidents_12m_total":126,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":5,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":74.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.04,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"PK","country_name":"Pakistan","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":70.19,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":650.4,"forecast_30d_avg":0.7166,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.269,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":214,"incidents_12m_disruption":28,"incidents_12m_total":242,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":6,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":74.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":4.05,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":58.52,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":220.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.5082,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.27,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":69,"incidents_12m_disruption":46,"incidents_12m_total":115,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":2,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":74.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.66,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":0.0,"country":"IQ","country_name":"IQ","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":54.84,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":156.9,"forecast_30d_avg":0.4945,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.044,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":44,"incidents_12m_disruption":83,"incidents_12m_total":127,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":5,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":72.6},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.67,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"MM","country_name":"Myanmar","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":68.43,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":552.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.6775,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.045,"historical_outcomes":167,"incidents_12m_censorship":178,"incidents_12m_disruption":61,"incidents_12m_total":239,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":10,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":72.6},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.63,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"NG","country_name":"Nigeria","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":51.29,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":112.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.7817,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.042,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":23,"incidents_12m_disruption":146,"incidents_12m_total":169,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":9,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":72.6},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.58,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":0.0,"country":"DZ","country_name":"Algeria","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":59.05,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":231.9,"forecast_30d_avg":0.493,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.039,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":70,"incidents_12m_disruption":73,"incidents_12m_total":143,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":4,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":72.5},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.57,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"LB","country_name":"Lebanon","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":61.82,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":28.0,"base_weighted_score":299.7,"forecast_30d_avg":0.2332,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.038,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":94,"incidents_12m_disruption":59,"incidents_12m_total":153,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":8,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":2},"score":72.5},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.6,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":0.0,"country":"UG","country_name":"Uganda","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":56.6,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":184.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.9,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.04,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":56,"incidents_12m_disruption":56,"incidents_12m_total":112,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":11,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":72.5},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":38.3,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":14.25,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"US","country_name":"United States","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":38.3,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":33.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.7127,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.95,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":3,"incidents_12m_disruption":81,"incidents_12m_total":84,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":3,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":["US Midterm Elections 2026 in 24d","US Midterm Elections 2026 in 20d","US Midterm Elections 2026 in 19d"],"risk_tier":0},"score":72.5},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.36,"incident_density_24h":1.94},"confidence":1.0,"country":"BD","country_name":"Bangladesh","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":62.02,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":305.4,"forecast_30d_avg":0.3683,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.024,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":94,"incidents_12m_disruption":78,"incidents_12m_total":172,"incidents_24h":1,"incidents_7d":6,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":72.3},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":2.11,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"TZ","country_name":"Tanzania","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":61.27,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":284.7,"forecast_30d_avg":0.7006,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.141,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":90,"incidents_12m_disruption":49,"incidents_12m_total":139,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":5,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":72.1},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.95,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"AZ","country_name":"Azerbaijan","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":70.18,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":649.5,"forecast_30d_avg":0.8691,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.063,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":213,"incidents_12m_disruption":35,"incidents_12m_total":248,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":8,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":71.0},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.78,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"LY","country_name":"LY","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":58.95,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":229.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.5257,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.052,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":72,"incidents_12m_disruption":46,"incidents_12m_total":118,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":6,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":70.8},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.76,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"QA","country_name":"QA","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":61.1,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":280.5,"forecast_30d_avg":0.3039,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.051,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":92,"incidents_12m_disruption":15,"incidents_12m_total":107,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":3,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":70.8},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.76,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":70.85,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":40.0,"base_weighted_score":691.2,"forecast_30d_avg":0.5199,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.051,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":222,"incidents_12m_disruption":84,"incidents_12m_total":306,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":10,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":3},"score":70.8},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.76,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"SG","country_name":"SG","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":59.49,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":241.5,"forecast_30d_avg":0.6108,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.051,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":80,"incidents_12m_disruption":5,"incidents_12m_total":85,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":1,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":70.8},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.72,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":60.09,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":255.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.5138,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.048,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":83,"incidents_12m_disruption":21,"incidents_12m_total":104,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":4,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":70.7},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.67,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"MY","country_name":"Malaysia","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":56.86,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":14.0,"base_weighted_score":189.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.2076,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.045,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":61,"incidents_12m_disruption":21,"incidents_12m_total":82,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":1,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":1},"score":70.7},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.58,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"AE","country_name":"AE","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":67.76,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":519.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.4724,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.039,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":173,"incidents_12m_disruption":1,"incidents_12m_total":174,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":5,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":70.6},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.64,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":0.0,"country":"BH","country_name":"Bahrain","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":56.43,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":0.0,"base_weighted_score":181.8,"forecast_30d_avg":0.687,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.043,"historical_outcomes":0,"incidents_12m_censorship":60,"incidents_12m_disruption":6,"incidents_12m_total":66,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":1,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":0},"score":70.6},{"components":{"anomaly":0.0,"base_rate":50.0,"forecast_30d_avg":20.0,"forecast_7d":0.63,"incident_density_24h":0.0},"confidence":1.0,"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","grade":"D","interpretation":"Atlas Score v2 \u2014 level-aware composite. 50% structural baseline (censorship-weighted 12-month incidents, with curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries) + 20% 30-day average forecast probability + 15% current 7-day max_risk (active spike) + 10% 24h incident density + 5% anomaly disagreement. Censorship/mixed incidents weighted 3x heavier than disruptions (which are weighted 0.3x to discount network-outage noise). Confidence is a separate 0-1 field based on historical outcome count, NOT added to the score. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) score high based on baseline level even when nothing is changing this week. Grade A 0-20 (open), B- 20-30, B 30-45, C 45-60, D 60-75, F 75+.","raw_signals":{"anomaly_note":"no anomaly model output; component=0","base_observed_pts":60.82,"base_score_source":"observed","base_tier_floor_pts":40.0,"base_weighted_score":273.3,"forecast_30d_avg":0.4834,"forecast_7d_max_risk":0.042,"historical_outcomes":168,"incidents_12m_censorship":90,"incidents_12m_disruption":11,"incidents_12m_total":101,"incidents_24h":0,"incidents_7d":4,"interval_90":null,"key_drivers":[],"risk_tier":3},"score":70.6}],"schema":"voidly-atlas-score-leaderboard/v2"}