{"calibration_drift_pp":-71.63,"calibration_drift_status":"drifting","country":"TR","cross_model_agreement":0.3574,"cross_model_predictions":[0.167,0.7672,0.0263],"data_age_days":0.47,"generated_at":"2026-05-22T05:15:04Z","honest_caveats":["This is a HEURISTIC composite, not a formal Bayesian posterior. Components are normalized to [0,1] and combined linearly with hand-tuned weights.","Weights are NOT learned from data. We chose them by prior intuition: model-internal uncertainty (conformal width) gets the heaviest weight, then evidence freshness + calibration drift, then sample-size + cross-model disagreement.","'Uncertain' prediction does NOT mean 'wrong' — it means 'lower confidence'. A high-uncertainty country may still be correct; it just lacks the signal-density / track-record / model-agreement to back the call strongly.","Cross-model disagreement uses three signals that target slightly different events (7d-forward forecast vs day-level classifier). Stdev of three numbers is a coarse signal.","Data freshness uses evidence.observed_at, not incidents. A country with no recent evidence row gets a freshness penalty even if older OONI/IODA signals are still meaningful.","Classifier conformal proxy is distance-to-threshold capped at 0.5, NOT a true conformal half-width. The v3.3 classifier doesn't ship a native conformal interval."],"mean_uncertainty":0.3398,"n_observations_90d":37,"per_model":[{"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7163,"conformal_interval_width":0.35,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6426,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"conformal_source_value":0.35,"model_id":"forecast-7day","prediction_today":0.167,"uncertainty_score":0.3788,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15}},{"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7163,"conformal_interval_width":0.0968,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6426,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"conformal_source_value":0.0968,"model_id":"multi-horizon-1d","prediction_today":null,"uncertainty_score":0.3028,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15}},{"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7163,"conformal_interval_width":0.1538,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6426,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"conformal_source_value":0.1538,"model_id":"multi-horizon-7d","prediction_today":0.7672,"uncertainty_score":0.3199,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15}},{"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7163,"conformal_interval_width":0.5,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6426,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"conformal_source_value":0.5,"model_id":"multi-horizon-30d","prediction_today":null,"uncertainty_score":0.4238,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15}},{"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7163,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6426,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"conformal_source_value":0,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0263,"uncertainty_score":0.2738,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15}}],"schema":"voidly-per-day-uncertainty/v1","sidecar_last_modified":"2026-05-22T05:15:05Z","sidecar_size_bytes":118453,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}