{"filter":{"limit":10,"model":"classifier-v3.3"},"generated_at":"2026-05-22T05:15:05Z","honest_caveats":["This is a HEURISTIC composite, not a formal Bayesian posterior. Components are normalized to [0,1] and combined linearly with hand-tuned weights.","Weights are NOT learned from data. We chose them by prior intuition: model-internal uncertainty (conformal width) gets the heaviest weight, then evidence freshness + calibration drift, then sample-size + cross-model disagreement.","'Uncertain' prediction does NOT mean 'wrong' — it means 'lower confidence'. A high-uncertainty country may still be correct; it just lacks the signal-density / track-record / model-agreement to back the call strongly.","Cross-model disagreement uses three signals that target slightly different events (7d-forward forecast vs day-level classifier). Stdev of three numbers is a coarse signal.","Data freshness uses evidence.observed_at, not incidents. A country with no recent evidence row gets a freshness penalty even if older OONI/IODA signals are still meaningful.","Classifier conformal proxy is distance-to-threshold capped at 0.5, NOT a true conformal half-width. The v3.3 classifier doesn't ship a native conformal interval."],"n_countries_scored":30,"results":[{"calibration_drift_pp":-59.72,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.5972,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4706,"data_age_factor":0.6797,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"SD","data_age_days":7.97,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0457,"uncertainty_score":0.3474},{"calibration_drift_pp":-59.33,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.5933,"conformal_interval_width":0.0729,"cross_model_disagreement":0.2883,"data_age_factor":0.6321,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"KP","data_age_days":null,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.1239,"uncertainty_score":0.3316},{"calibration_drift_pp":-58.83,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.5883,"conformal_interval_width":0.0729,"cross_model_disagreement":0.2855,"data_age_factor":0.6321,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"ER","data_age_days":null,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.1239,"uncertainty_score":0.3302},{"calibration_drift_pp":-31.04,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.3104,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4915,"data_age_factor":0.8254,"sample_size_factor":0.1412},"country":"NI","data_age_days":12.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0228,"uncertainty_score":0.3221},{"calibration_drift_pp":-65.94,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.6594,"conformal_interval_width":0.2211,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4293,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"SY","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.1722,"uncertainty_score":0.3219},{"calibration_drift_pp":-33.54,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.3354,"conformal_interval_width":0.3237,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4818,"data_age_factor":0.2716,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"NG","data_age_days":2.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0398,"uncertainty_score":0.3122},{"calibration_drift_pp":-59.39,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.5939,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.2722,"data_age_factor":0.5887,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"TM","data_age_days":6.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0261,"uncertainty_score":0.2988},{"calibration_drift_pp":-75,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.75,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5107,"data_age_factor":0.2452,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"LB","data_age_days":1.97,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0035,"uncertainty_score":0.2971},{"calibration_drift_pp":28.63,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2863,"conformal_interval_width":0.2221,"cross_model_disagreement":0.7421,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.1396},"country":"UZ","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.069,"uncertainty_score":0.294},{"calibration_drift_pp":-73.16,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7316,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4995,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.1429},"country":"ET","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0901,"uncertainty_score":0.2805}],"schema":"voidly-per-day-uncertainty/v1","sidecar_last_modified":"2026-05-22T05:15:05Z","sidecar_size_bytes":118453,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. 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