{"filter":{"limit":10,"model":"classifier-v3.3"},"generated_at":"2026-07-07T05:15:09Z","honest_caveats":["This is a HEURISTIC composite, not a formal Bayesian posterior. Components are normalized to [0,1] and combined linearly with hand-tuned weights.","Weights are NOT learned from data. We chose them by prior intuition: model-internal uncertainty (conformal width) gets the heaviest weight, then evidence freshness + calibration drift, then sample-size + cross-model disagreement.","'Uncertain' prediction does NOT mean 'wrong' — it means 'lower confidence'. A high-uncertainty country may still be correct; it just lacks the signal-density / track-record / model-agreement to back the call strongly.","Cross-model disagreement uses three signals that target slightly different events (7d-forward forecast vs day-level classifier). Stdev of three numbers is a coarse signal.","Data freshness uses evidence.observed_at, not incidents. A country with no recent evidence row gets a freshness penalty even if older OONI/IODA signals are still meaningful.","Classifier conformal proxy is distance-to-threshold capped at 0.5, NOT a true conformal half-width. The v3.3 classifier doesn't ship a native conformal interval."],"n_countries_scored":30,"results":[{"calibration_drift_pp":72.29,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7229,"conformal_interval_width":0.2573,"cross_model_disagreement":0.7784,"data_age_factor":0.0564,"sample_size_factor":0.0824},"country":"VE","data_age_days":0.41,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.967,"uncertainty_score":0.3622},{"calibration_drift_pp":83.01,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.8301,"conformal_interval_width":0.1011,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5393,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0863},"country":"ID","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.022,"uncertainty_score":0.328},{"calibration_drift_pp":65.87,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.6587,"conformal_interval_width":0.1617,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5436,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.094},"country":"UZ","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0086,"uncertainty_score":0.3137},{"calibration_drift_pp":72.08,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7208,"conformal_interval_width":0.1917,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4741,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.0853},"country":"BY","data_age_days":0.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.2015,"uncertainty_score":0.2985},{"calibration_drift_pp":-28.5,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.285,"conformal_interval_width":0.3529,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4269,"data_age_factor":0.2717,"sample_size_factor":0.0944},"country":"NG","data_age_days":2.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.069,"uncertainty_score":0.2954},{"calibration_drift_pp":79.74,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7974,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5477,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.087},"country":"BD","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.005,"uncertainty_score":0.2925},{"calibration_drift_pp":74,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.74,"conformal_interval_width":0.127,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5279,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.085},"country":"VN","data_age_days":0.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.049,"uncertainty_score":0.291},{"calibration_drift_pp":71.97,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7197,"conformal_interval_width":0.1148,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5228,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.0897},"country":"SA","data_age_days":0.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0614,"uncertainty_score":0.2832},{"calibration_drift_pp":84.69,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.8469,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5422,"data_age_factor":0.0648,"sample_size_factor":0.0856},"country":"TR","data_age_days":0.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0167,"uncertainty_score":0.2765},{"calibration_drift_pp":71.26,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7126,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5489,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0874},"country":"KZ","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0025,"uncertainty_score":0.2758}],"schema":"voidly-per-day-uncertainty/v1","sidecar_last_modified":"2026-07-07T05:15:09Z","sidecar_size_bytes":118406,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. 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