{"filter":{"limit":10,"model":"classifier-v3.3"},"generated_at":"2026-07-06T05:15:09Z","honest_caveats":["This is a HEURISTIC composite, not a formal Bayesian posterior. Components are normalized to [0,1] and combined linearly with hand-tuned weights.","Weights are NOT learned from data. We chose them by prior intuition: model-internal uncertainty (conformal width) gets the heaviest weight, then evidence freshness + calibration drift, then sample-size + cross-model disagreement.","'Uncertain' prediction does NOT mean 'wrong' — it means 'lower confidence'. A high-uncertainty country may still be correct; it just lacks the signal-density / track-record / model-agreement to back the call strongly.","Cross-model disagreement uses three signals that target slightly different events (7d-forward forecast vs day-level classifier). Stdev of three numbers is a coarse signal.","Data freshness uses evidence.observed_at, not incidents. A country with no recent evidence row gets a freshness penalty even if older OONI/IODA signals are still meaningful.","Classifier conformal proxy is distance-to-threshold capped at 0.5, NOT a true conformal half-width. The v3.3 classifier doesn't ship a native conformal interval."],"n_countries_scored":30,"results":[{"calibration_drift_pp":79.65,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7965,"conformal_interval_width":0.3632,"cross_model_disagreement":0.6586,"data_age_factor":0.2716,"sample_size_factor":0.0874},"country":"BD","data_age_days":2.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.7861,"uncertainty_score":0.4345},{"calibration_drift_pp":73.08,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7308,"conformal_interval_width":0.3147,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4729,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.086},"country":"BY","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.3245,"uncertainty_score":0.3623},{"calibration_drift_pp":67.58,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.6758,"conformal_interval_width":0.3497,"cross_model_disagreement":0.3965,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0885},"country":"PK","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.4885,"uncertainty_score":0.3507},{"calibration_drift_pp":74.43,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7443,"conformal_interval_width":0.2574,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4822,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.086},"country":"VN","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.1794,"uncertainty_score":0.3492},{"calibration_drift_pp":82.13,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.8213,"conformal_interval_width":0.0947,"cross_model_disagreement":0.5427,"data_age_factor":0.2716,"sample_size_factor":0.0867},"country":"ID","data_age_days":2.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0156,"uncertainty_score":0.3414},{"calibration_drift_pp":83.72,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.8372,"conformal_interval_width":0.1624,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4776,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0863},"country":"TR","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.2237,"uncertainty_score":0.3386},{"calibration_drift_pp":67.58,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.6758,"conformal_interval_width":0.1745,"cross_model_disagreement":0.548,"data_age_factor":0.2717,"sample_size_factor":0.0944},"country":"UZ","data_age_days":2.22,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.0214,"uncertainty_score":0.3382},{"calibration_drift_pp":72.99,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.7299,"conformal_interval_width":0.2156,"cross_model_disagreement":0.4896,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0905},"country":"SA","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.1622,"uncertainty_score":0.3355},{"calibration_drift_pp":67.58,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.6758,"conformal_interval_width":0.3282,"cross_model_disagreement":0.1756,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0893},"country":"EG","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.5442,"uncertainty_score":0.3112},{"calibration_drift_pp":82.14,"components":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.8214,"conformal_interval_width":0,"cross_model_disagreement":0.537,"data_age_factor":0.1893,"sample_size_factor":0.0867},"country":"TH","data_age_days":1.47,"model_id":"classifier-v3.3","prediction_today":0.028,"uncertainty_score":0.2957}],"schema":"voidly-per-day-uncertainty/v1","sidecar_last_modified":"2026-07-06T05:15:09Z","sidecar_size_bytes":118446,"weights":{"calibration_drift_factor":0.2,"conformal_interval_width":0.3,"cross_model_disagreement":0.15,"data_age_factor":0.2,"sample_size_factor":0.15},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. 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