{"calibrated_against_n_incidents":183,"country":"IR","date":"2026-05-15","evidence":{"censoredplanet":{"likelihood_ratio":0.0101,"n_anomalous_rows":0,"present":false,"raw_sources_observed":[]},"ioda":{"likelihood_ratio":0.2873,"n_anomalous_rows":10,"present":true,"raw_sources_observed":["ioda"]},"ooni":{"likelihood_ratio":1.7624,"n_anomalous_rows":5,"present":true,"raw_sources_observed":["ooni"]},"voidly_probes":{"likelihood_ratio":0.9921,"n_anomalous_rows":0,"present":false,"raw_sources_observed":[]}},"honest_caveats":["LEAKAGE AUDIT (2026-05-22): the reported AUC ~0.92 is real arithmetic but near-tautological. The label is_censorship is derived from the incidents table; 343 of 344 censorship/mixed incidents were minted from an anomalous evidence row on the same country-day the feature counts. The feature partially ENCODES the label.","censoredplanet_present alone (one raw binary feature, no model) scores AUC ~0.90 on the temporal test set. The 4-source Naive Bayes adds only ~1.6pp (bootstrap 95% CI [0.0, 3.3pp]) \u2014 the 'multi-source fusion' contributes essentially nothing."],"log_odds":-8.609,"n_sources_corroborating":2,"posterior_probability":0.0002,"prior":0.0347,"schema":"voidly-corroboration/v1"}