{"schema":"voidly.early-warning.commitments-read.v1","source_url":"https://voidly.ai/early-warning/commitments.jsonl","page_url":"https://voidly.ai/atlas/early-warning","protocol_url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/early-warning/protocol","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T08:01:39.795Z","performance_score":null,"caveats":["This is a commitment ledger, not a validated warning service. No performance score is published yet.","A committed row's SHA-256 lets a released forecast file be checked against the commitment. It does not independently prove when the file was issued.","Dates identify forecast issue days, not independently verified publication timestamps.","Alerts, alert counts and scores are not disclosed here. Scores stay private until the scoring window closes.","An arm listed on a committed row may still lack a populated forecast.","A missed_zero_alerts row records a day with no committed file; that day is scored as zero alerts.","A published row that lists an arm this reader does not recognise is left out and counted in log.skipped_unknown_arm; a row of an unrecognised record_type is counted in log.skipped_unknown_record_type.","A cutover record names an arm, the instant from which that arm version is logged and a pre-registered SHA-256. Like a row digest, it does not prove when it was written, and it is not a score.","A label-lane cutover (arm label_lane, returned in lane_cutovers) names the labeling-rules version that applies from an instant. It is not a forecasting arm and not a score.","A committed row dated before the recorded cutover of an arm it lists is kept, marked before_cutover and counted in log.arm_rows_before_cutover.","fetched_at is when this API read the published file, not when any forecast was issued."],"log":{"rows":12,"committed":12,"missed_zero_alerts":0,"cutovers":4,"lane_cutovers":3,"skipped_unknown_arm":0,"skipped_unknown_record_type":0,"arm_rows_before_cutover":9,"first_date":"2026-10-14","latest_date":"2026-10-25"},"cutovers":[{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"hazard_a","effective_from":"2026-10-17T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"e2e9b984b7f95b1d35704ecd41836affaa63663438d1bf8d0d10945fd8201de6","note":"Pre-registration record for arm A v1 (calendar + history hazard), the reference arm from this issue. The hash is scripts/accuracy/hazard_a/A-PRETEST-PLAN.json. Frozen model, no refit inside its window. Finding: hazard-arm-a-development-negative-2026-10. No claim."},{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"logistic_history","effective_from":"2026-10-23T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"4c0f0db3585775d11cf52e8bade518aaf09855aaec76dcbc6d3e8d82326fbd49","note":"Comparator populated from this issue: frozen logistic model 8c63c1fa on our own adjudicated label ledger (A-PRETEST-PLAN baselines). Issues 2026-10-14 to 10-22 logged it empty; those files are unchanged. Hash: scripts/accuracy/hazard_a/BASELINES-CUTOVER-V1.json. No claim."},{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"climatology","effective_from":"2026-10-23T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"4c0f0db3585775d11cf52e8bade518aaf09855aaec76dcbc6d3e8d82326fbd49","note":"Comparator populated from this issue: own-ledger climatology per unit, min(1, 7 x prior-365-day onsets / 365) (A-PRETEST-PLAN baselines). Issues 2026-10-14 to 10-22 logged it empty; those files are unchanged. Hash: scripts/accuracy/hazard_a/BASELINES-CUTOVER-V1.json. No claim."},{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"persistence","effective_from":"2026-10-23T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"4c0f0db3585775d11cf52e8bade518aaf09855aaec76dcbc6d3e8d82326fbd49","note":"Comparator populated from this issue: own-ledger persistence per unit, 1 after an onset in the prior 30 days, else climatology. Issues 2026-10-14 to 10-22 logged it empty; those files are unchanged. Hash: scripts/accuracy/hazard_a/BASELINES-CUTOVER-V1.json. No claim."}],"lane_cutovers":[{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"label_lane","effective_from":"2026-10-26T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"40d565f8fadb1cac198c7fb27c128ebbd652863cc6f998458a45dfafcf51aeb7","note":"Label-lane v2 (labeler reading Cloudflare Radar, prompt 3e3dcf07, client) applies only to candidates whose evidence window starts after this issue: dates from 2026-11-26. Earlier candidates and labels keep v1. Hash: landing/public/early-warning/label-lane-v2.json. No claim."},{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"label_lane","effective_from":"2026-10-30T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"39495975f2e056658c0516c26d24662471108e2770db0a7d54089bb74cb70bee","note":"Label-lane v3 (scheduled lane 30 min at 15-min resolution; campaign exam calendars; prompt a0175648) applies only to candidates dated 2026-11-30 or later. Earlier candidates and labels keep v1 or v2. Hash: landing/public/early-warning/label-lane-v3.json. No claim."},{"record_type":"cutover","arm":"label_lane","effective_from":"2026-11-06T06:00:00Z","pre_registered_sha256":"7da6f5fafa084cfd042905d0bb35db7f3f574416e7e1011cc59201f4cc131753","note":"Label-lane v4 (strict robots, host allow-list, terms and noai holds, no Pulse input; prompt a0175648 unchanged) applies only to candidates dated 2026-12-07 or later. Earlier candidates and labels keep v1, v2 or v3. Hash: landing/public/early-warning/label-lane-v4.json. No claim."}],"since":null,"returned":12,"commitments":[{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-14","sha256":"d48a0cbe739eebb565278b095270e583d0d4763cc7b3cb933296c77c68169b69","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-15","sha256":"d88dcb5e4e7e2fbc892b4c9d0cd7ca25092dacdfdfea022efa5aab22f50535f5","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-16","sha256":"8fb93e2409a93cc1ee864266ac7d337190e3a70afd64199ee4f92342b168d086","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-17","sha256":"0f0f752909d0405101cc390eb0c3a3de76d13a82b8394bc77521eea86fa8e93d","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-18","sha256":"88f6bca8e969b4787d1ede1d859722bb5d7e8924d4be14da056e0f6c28655cbf","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-19","sha256":"104960f171163532b7d7cd74719c571950bbc0c0c4f66852901b5f92e3ed817f","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-20","sha256":"fd20ecadcf00facc74aec277887fca9551b74c8a35094895a649f62a6610fced","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-21","sha256":"afc5a2f08855b5fc49461bbf875ed0f3f86908d274d609b3e4a7efe9a4df4cb6","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-22","sha256":"ca16a30ac73977350e577eae5b3941420e7dd3b474c89c0377717415c4fcd154","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed","before_cutover":true},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-23","sha256":"7c1bff33f69429bacee02ce510712b7d30210ff8bbb794584167d34e95a9c672","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed"},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-24","sha256":"4bd66cb7770006324403f29030f954de66260e14b884081a209a7272ea9831f1","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed"},{"schema":"x2-d-public-commitment-v1","date":"2026-10-25","sha256":"b392fade904c0183c3534bdcfeb5946be8a3ee47206ff646d37e043c8f4cba3a","arms":["notice_rule","logistic_history","climatology","persistence","random","hazard_a"],"status":"committed"}]}