{"aci":{"active":true,"alpha":0.048,"empirical_coverage":0.8979,"last_updated":"2026-09-20T03:45:01.994067+00:00","n_observations":2518,"q_applied":0.35,"q_raw":0.9836},"aci_alpha":0.048,"confidence":0.85,"country":"AM","country_name":"Armenia","covered":true,"forecast":[{"date":"2026-09-20","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-09-21","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.019},{"date":"2026-09-22","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-09-23","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.046},{"date":"2026-09-24","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.036},{"date":"2026-09-25","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.039},{"date":"2026-09-26","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.033},{"date":"2026-09-27","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.062}],"generated_at":"2026-09-20T13:49:34.589095","honest_caveat":{"confidence_is":"fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","headline_auc_note":"Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].","honest_temporal_holdout_auc":"~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)","live_forward_accountability":["GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (rolling 30-day precision/recall; currently self-reported degraded)","GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"],"source":"ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."},"interval_90":[0,0.412],"model_version":"v1","summary":{"avg_risk":0.035,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.062,"max_risk_day":7},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}],"top_features_per_day":[{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-20","day":0,"risk":0.018,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-21","day":1,"risk":0.019,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-22","day":2,"risk":0.027,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-23","day":3,"risk":0.046,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-24","day":4,"risk":0.036,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-25","day":5,"risk":0.039,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-26","day":6,"risk":0.033,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.03,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+6","source":"overlay"}]},{"base_prob":0.0137,"date":"2026-09-27","day":7,"risk":0.062,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.047,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.035,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+7","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0302,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}]}