{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"AU","country_name":"AU","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T03:48:10.320521","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0968,"lower":0.2672,"upper":0.4608},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8787743449211121},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.20909833908081055},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.20903053879737854},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.18092919886112213},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.10594046115875244}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.1999,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8974724411964417},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.38618865609169006},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.15017352998256683},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.07021912187337875},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.05881684646010399}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1875,"lower":0.4641,"upper":0.8391},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.6516,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.5131952166557312},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.488237202167511},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.19161930680274963},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.16740672290325165},{"feature":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.13415345549583435}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}