{"aci":{"active":true,"alpha":0.108,"empirical_coverage":0.9003,"last_updated":"2026-10-03T03:45:01.546821+00:00","n_observations":2518,"q_applied":0.35,"q_raw":0.913},"aci_alpha":0.108,"confidence":0.85,"country":"BA","country_name":"Bosnia and Herzegovina","covered":true,"forecast":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 1d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 1d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 28d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 28d"],"risk":0.25},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 27d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 27d"],"risk":0.353},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 26d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 26d"],"risk":0.028},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 25d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 25d"],"risk":0.039},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 24d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 24d"],"risk":0.072},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 23d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 23d"],"risk":0.049},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 22d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 22d"],"risk":0.078},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 21d","Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 21d"],"risk":0.068}],"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:37:00.226276","honest_caveat":{"confidence_is":"fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","headline_auc_note":"Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].","honest_temporal_holdout_auc":"~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)","live_forward_accountability":["GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (rolling 30-day precision/recall; currently self-reported degraded)","GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"],"source":"ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."},"interval_90":[0.0030000000000000027,0.703],"model_version":"v1","summary":{"avg_risk":0.117,"key_drivers":["Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 27d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 24d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 28d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 27d","Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 26d"],"max_risk":0.353,"max_risk_day":1},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0263,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}],"top_features_per_day":[{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"risk":0.25,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.2627,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 1d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"risk":0.353,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.333,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"risk":0.028,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0341,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"risk":0.039,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0353,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"risk":0.072,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0366,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"risk":0.049,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.038,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"risk":0.078,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0395,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.034,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"risk":0.068,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0411,"direction":"up","name":"event:Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":0.035,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+7","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0343,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"}]}]}