{"aci":{"active":true,"alpha":0.108,"empirical_coverage":0.9003,"last_updated":"2026-10-03T03:45:01.546821+00:00","n_observations":2518,"q_applied":0.35,"q_raw":0.913},"aci_alpha":0.108,"confidence":0.85,"country":"BG","country_name":"Bulgaria","covered":true,"forecast":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 22d"],"risk":0.025},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 21d"],"risk":0.024},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 20d"],"risk":0.045},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 19d"],"risk":0.031},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 18d"],"risk":0.043},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 17d"],"risk":0.065},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 16d"],"risk":0.07},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 15d"],"risk":0.056}],"generated_at":"2026-10-03T21:19:45.118752","honest_caveat":{"confidence_is":"fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","headline_auc_note":"Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].","honest_temporal_holdout_auc":"~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)","live_forward_accountability":["GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (rolling 30-day precision/recall; currently self-reported degraded)","GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"],"source":"ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."},"interval_90":[0,0.42],"model_version":"v1","summary":{"avg_risk":0.045,"key_drivers":["Bulgarian Presidency in 20d","Bulgarian Presidency in 18d","Bulgarian Presidency in 15d","Bulgarian Presidency in 16d","Bulgarian Presidency in 19d"],"max_risk":0.07,"max_risk_day":6},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}],"top_features_per_day":[{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"risk":0.025,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"risk":0.024,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"risk":0.045,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"risk":0.031,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"risk":0.043,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"risk":0.065,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"risk":0.07,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.03,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+6","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"risk":0.056,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0422,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.035,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+7","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]}]}