{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"BG","country_name":"Bulgaria","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:39:26.442085","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"LOCO binary-outcome residual widths are not validated 90% probability intervals; bands are withheld at every horizon.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.856869637966156},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.08951836824417114},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.046429216861724854},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.045946937054395676},{"feature":"incident_count_7d","shap_value":-0.03448975831270218}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7255201935768127},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.48820286989212036},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":0.23865218460559845},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.15192562341690063},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.07943125069141388}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.533053457736969},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":0.12177203595638275},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.10204058140516281},{"feature":"block_rate_lag14","shap_value":0.10027532279491425},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.05923563241958618}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}