{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-04T12:37:16.445115","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0976,"lower":0.2665,"upper":0.4616},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8500960469245911},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.5491260886192322},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.27407509088516235},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.15655159950256348},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.08363062888383865}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.4521,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7235043048858643},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.5605753064155579},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.16676706075668335},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.09323692321777344},{"feature":"blocked_count_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.07587376981973648}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.2121,"lower":0.3763,"upper":0.8006},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.5234760642051697},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.3239125609397888},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.2792101800441742},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.2544093132019043},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.11127498745918274}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}