{"aci":{"active":true,"alpha":0.108,"empirical_coverage":0.9003,"last_updated":"2026-10-03T03:45:01.546821+00:00","n_observations":2518,"q_applied":0.35,"q_raw":0.913},"aci_alpha":0.108,"confidence":0.85,"country":"CZ","country_name":"Czech Republic","covered":true,"forecast":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 6d"],"risk":0.034},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 5d"],"risk":0.051},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 4d"],"risk":0.074},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 3d"],"risk":0.08},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 2d"],"risk":0.104},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":["Czech Senate in 1d"],"risk":0.143},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":["Czech Senate"],"risk":0.191},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.032}],"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:39:29.011254","honest_caveat":{"confidence_is":"fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","headline_auc_note":"Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].","honest_temporal_holdout_auc":"~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)","live_forward_accountability":["GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (rolling 30-day precision/recall; currently self-reported degraded)","GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"],"source":"ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."},"interval_90":[0,0.5409999999999999],"model_version":"v1","summary":{"avg_risk":0.089,"key_drivers":["Czech Senate in 2d","Czech Senate","Czech Senate in 5d","Czech Senate in 3d","Czech Senate in 6d"],"max_risk":0.191,"max_risk_day":6},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0242,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"}],"top_features_per_day":[{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"risk":0.034,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0536,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 6d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"risk":0.051,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.06,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 5d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"risk":0.074,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0682,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 4d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"risk":0.08,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0789,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 3d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"risk":0.104,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.0938,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 2d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"risk":0.143,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.1154,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate in 1d","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"risk":0.191,"top_features":[{"contribution":0.15,"direction":"up","name":"event:Czech Senate","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.03,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+6","source":"overlay"}]},{"base_prob":0,"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"risk":0.032,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.035,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+7","source":"overlay"},{"contribution":-0.0275,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]}]}