{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"EE","country_name":"EE","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-07T01:38:16.649551","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0968,"lower":0.2672,"upper":0.4608},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.9588872790336609},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.21057286858558655},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.16285133361816406},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.07036349922418594},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.07000602036714554}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.1999,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8761163949966431},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.1038793995976448},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.07837285846471786},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.07276259362697601},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.057852063328027725}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1875,"lower":0.1689,"upper":0.5439},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.3564,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7620609402656555},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.16663074493408203},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.08388543874025345},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.05479482561349869},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.05049620568752289}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}