{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"ER","country_name":"Eritrea","coverage_caveat":"ER has NO measurement coverage in the evidence base — this multi-horizon forecast is a heuristic/model extrapolation from default features, NOT a data-backed prediction; treat the risk numbers as not meaningful.","covered":false,"generated_at":"2026-07-05T18:35:17.541424","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0968,"lower":0.0543,"upper":0.2478},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.1511,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.870309591293335},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.40753382444381714},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.282583087682724},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.05989699438214302},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.04358815774321556}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.1999,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8059899210929871},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.5903651118278503},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.09785383194684982},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.06418746709823608},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.04944172874093056}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1875,"lower":0.1689,"upper":0.5439},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.3564,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.1671011447906494},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.2852717936038971},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.1286913901567459},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":0.05883939564228058},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.05428402125835419}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}