{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-03T21:52:55.486382","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0968,"lower":0.1242,"upper":0.3178},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.221,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.9435522556304932},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.09680799394845963},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.08687546104192734},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.0772797167301178},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.0757506713271141}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.4521,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.6418333649635315},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.48383036255836487},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":0.2766698896884918},{"feature":"block_rate_lag1","shap_value":0.23019473254680634},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.145440936088562}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1875,"lower":0.4009,"upper":0.7759},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.5202714800834656},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.3793109357357025},{"feature":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.1580713987350464},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.13333848118782043},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.11235073208808899}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}