{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"GN","country_name":"GN","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-29T18:13:21.249939","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"LOCO binary-outcome residual widths are not validated 90% probability intervals; bands are withheld at every horizon.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.221,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.1064324378967285},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.12791240215301514},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.11351873725652695},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.09739936888217926},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.09519514441490173}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8292691707611084},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.33369237184524536},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.1713028848171234},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.12276852130889893},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.12085087597370148}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.6516,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8590527772903442},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.40961354970932007},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.20904472470283508},{"feature":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.16197569668293},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.0895879790186882}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}