{"aci":{"active":false,"reason":"unverified: training holdout and ACI outcomes do not match the served headline or qualified target"},"aci_alpha":null,"confidence":0.85,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","covered":true,"forecast":[{"date":"2026-10-09","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.243},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.232},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.225},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.249},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.26},{"date":"2026-10-14","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.236},{"date":"2026-10-15","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.24},{"date":"2026-10-16","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.247}],"forecast_trajectory_note":"summary.max_risk comes from honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). The per-day forecast[] trajectory is the legacy v1 illustrative shape; the v1 value is kept as max_risk_v1_leaky.","generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:18:31.526141","honest_caveat":{"confidence_is":"fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","headline_auc_note":"Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].","honest_temporal_holdout_auc":"~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)","live_forward_accountability":["GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (503 unvalidated; empirical precision/recall withheld)","GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"],"source":"ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."},"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.4959,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Historical backtest only: rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29. It did NOT hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). Experimental; under re-evaluation (B1602). Do not cite as a validated forecast."},"interval_90":null,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","summary":{"avg_risk":0.241,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.4959,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.26},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier"},{"contribution":-0.0559,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14"}],"top_features_per_day":[{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-09","day":0,"risk":0.243,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-10","day":1,"risk":0.232,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-11","day":2,"risk":0.225,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-12","day":3,"risk":0.249,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-13","day":4,"risk":0.26,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-14","day":5,"risk":0.236,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0295,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag14","source":"model"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-15","day":6,"risk":0.24,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.03,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+6","source":"overlay"}]},{"base_prob":0.2259,"date":"2026-10-16","day":7,"risk":0.247,"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0888,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0612,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.035,"direction":"up","name":"day_decay_t+7","source":"overlay"}]}]}