{"above_f1_threshold":true,"as_of":"2026-05-22","country":"IR","f1_optimal_threshold":0.0,"forward_temporal_auc":0.4898,"honest_caveats":["Onset is the hard problem: P(a NEW confirmed censorship/mixed shutdown begins within 7 days), scored ONLY on country-days with no shutdown active now. This is NOT the /7day endpoint, which is a current-regime persistence signal.","IODA disruption incidents (fiber cuts, DDoS, BGP, weather) are excluded from the onset label \u2014 only confirmed censorship + mixed count.","Evaluation is forward-temporal only (train past, test strictly-future). See /v1/forecast/onset/info for the honest AUC and the promote verdict.","If a shutdown is active in a country right now, onset is undefined for it and this endpoint returns status=shutdown_active with no probability."],"horizon_days":7,"info_url":"/v1/forecast/onset/info","interpretation":"The onset model did NOT clear the promote gate \u2014 treat this probability as a research signal, not a calibrated forecast. See /v1/forecast/onset/info.","lift_over_base_rate":72.06,"model_promoted":false,"onset_base_rate":0.0138,"onset_probability_7d":0.9972,"schema":"voidly-onset-forecast/v1","status":"ok","verdict":"NEGATIVE_FINDING"}