{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-08-19T19:30:45.013551","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0676,"lower":0.1535,"upper":0.2886},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.221,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.9357854127883911},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.21655122935771942},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.21510431170463562},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.14978186786174774},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.09542835503816605}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.4521,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.4852888584136963},{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.3561036288738251},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":0.25568005442619324},{"feature":"block_rate_lag1","shap_value":0.23019473254680634},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.14425905048847198}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1646,"lower":0.3227,"upper":0.6518},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.4873,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8128438591957092},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.2671809494495392},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.22656603157520294},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.2249186486005783},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.1678960621356964}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}