{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"PG","country_name":"PG","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-21T04:02:53.965906","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"LOCO binary-outcome residual widths are not validated 90% probability intervals; bands are withheld at every horizon.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7332086563110352},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.13304658234119415},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.055491846054792404},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.04564318805932999},{"feature":"incident_count_7d","shap_value":-0.04024529457092285}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.6846063733100891},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.48504915833473206},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":0.1997983306646347},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.1513790637254715},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.0896734893321991}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.6674304008483887},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":0.12932506203651428},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.06257115304470062},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.05730610713362694},{"feature":"block_rate_lag14","shap_value":0.055629342794418335}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}