{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-07-05T15:55:49.144400","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1852,"lower":0.0358,"upper":0.4062},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.221,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8673759698867798},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.4157499372959137},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.3819667398929596},{"feature":"high_urgency_signals_7d","shap_value":0.35076189041137695},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.13320767879486084}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.4521,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.5639404058456421},{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.46013352274894714},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.28795570135116577},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.23545116186141968},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.19120633602142334}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1569,"lower":0.1995,"upper":0.5132},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.3564,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.14651620388031},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.35521018505096436},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.2556251883506775},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.16734275221824646},{"feature":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","shap_value":0.16288132965564728}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}