{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"SD","country_name":"Sudan","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T08:48:29.003539","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"LOCO binary-outcome residual widths are not validated 90% probability intervals; bands are withheld at every horizon.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.8143139481544495},{"feature":"is_friday","shap_value":-0.17718684673309326},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.11336508393287659},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":0.07289827615022659},{"feature":"incident_count_7d","shap_value":-0.04823519289493561}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.833581268787384},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":0.4884473383426666},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":0.31926190853118896},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":0.2433667927980423},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.16142819821834564}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":null,"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"interval_status":"unvalidated","probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7027224898338318},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":0.15887634456157684},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.15663287043571472},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":-0.11955812573432922},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.07751451432704926}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}