{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T11:43:35.769778","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.0882,"lower":0.2758,"upper":0.4523},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.364,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.9115216135978699},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.25987371802330017},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.2203250527381897},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.15285170078277588},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.1311156302690506}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.3023,"lower":0.6497,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.9521,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7975001335144043},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.5725128650665283},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":0.32919013500213623},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.18694311380386353},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.16817007958889008}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.25,"lower":0.3384,"upper":0.8384},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.5884,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.7512915134429932},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":0.32473891973495483},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_std","shap_value":-0.21806120872497559},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":0.20953868329524994},{"feature":"critical_incident_7d","shap_value":-0.07691676169633865}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1"}