{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"TM","country_name":"Turkmenistan","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-08-19T19:30:45.055322","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","detects_change_not_state":"This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.05,"lower":0.1011,"upper":0.2011},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.1511,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.9617565870285034},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.33852970600128174},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.20281942188739777},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.11736630648374557},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.10340794175863266}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.1999,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.0185489654541016},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.6300697326660156},{"feature":"block_rate_roll7_mean","shap_value":-0.13439670205116272},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.09408349543809891},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":0.08429074287414551}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1471,"lower":0.2093,"upper":0.5034},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.3564,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.0309237241744995},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.44121289253234863},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.12623365223407745},{"feature":"block_rate_roll30_mean","shap_value":-0.057348694652318954},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.05001659691333771}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}