{"consistency":{"monotonic":true,"violations":[]},"country":"TM","country_name":"Turkmenistan","covered":true,"generated_at":"2026-07-05T15:57:48.782705","honest_caveat":{"auc_caveat":"AUC (e.g. 1d ~0.91) OVERSTATES usefulness — per-horizon F1 is much lower (~0.45 at 1d) because shutdown-positive days are rare and the 7/30-day target is a sliding window that is highly autocorrelated day-to-day (a leakage-prone label).","conformal_caveat":"Conformal bands widen sharply at 30d (often ~[0.45, 1.0]) — the 30d point estimate is low-confidence.","correct_use":"Use for cross-country RISK RANKING within the watched panel, NOT precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing. Data-backed for covered countries only (see the 'covered' flag).","metrics_are":"Per-horizon AUC is leave-one-country-out on the SPOTLIGHT (watched) panel, NOT all 130 countries; see /v1/forecast/multi-horizon/info for the per-horizon F1."},"honest_horizons":["1d","30d","7d"],"horizons":{"1d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.05,"lower":0.1011,"upper":0.2011},"horizon":"1d","horizon_days":1,"probability":0.1511,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.6973643898963928},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":-0.3911067843437195},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.29974278807640076},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":0.06201767548918724},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.04578598588705063}]},"30d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.5,"lower":0.1999,"upper":1},"horizon":"30d","horizon_days":30,"probability":0.6999,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-0.860460102558136},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.5567198991775513},{"feature":"recent_shutdown","shap_value":-0.11024752259254456},{"feature":"block_rate_roll14_mean","shap_value":-0.060983844101428986},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.048854000866413116}]},"7d":{"conformal_90":{"halfwidth":0.1471,"lower":0.2093,"upper":0.5034},"horizon":"7d","horizon_days":7,"probability":0.3564,"top_features":[{"feature":"week_of_year","shap_value":-1.083495855331421},{"feature":"risk_tier","shap_value":-0.3403206765651703},{"feature":"month","shap_value":-0.12429694086313248},{"feature":"gdelt_unrest_30d","shap_value":-0.06520995497703552},{"feature":"day_of_week","shap_value":0.05717514827847481}]}},"model_version":"multi-horizon-h-v1","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}