{"asn":8895,"country":"SA","country_name":"Saudi Arabia","has_direct_evidence":1,"honest_caveats":["Re-evaluated 2026-05-22 with a GENUINE censorship label (CensoredPlanet signal_value: 62 ASNs that block probes vs 35 that let them through) and leakage-audited density+topology features. Leave-one-COUNTRY-out CV across 97 ASNs / 30 country folds: AUC 0.7751, permutation p=0.0002 (5000 perms). The GNN beats chance at p<0.05 \u2014 passed_promote_floor flipped to true.","Plain leave-one-AS-out (same-country siblings stay in training): AUC 0.7645, p=0.0002.","The old headline (AUC 0.80, n=6) was an underpowered CV on a label that had collapsed to a measurement-density flag \u2014 it is superseded by this evaluation.","Per-ASN labels remain CensoredPlanet-only and sparse (97 ASNs). More labeled ASNs would tighten the estimate further."],"horizon_days":7,"interpretation":"Per-ASN 7-day shutdown probability from a GraphSAGE GNN trained on the CAIDA AS-AS topology. ASNs with no direct evidence get a score derived ENTIRELY from their CAIDA neighbors' features \u2014 treat low-evidence predictions skeptically. Re-evaluated 2026-05-22 with a genuine signal_value censorship label under leakage-safe leave-one-COUNTRY-out CV (97 ASNs, 30 country folds): AUC 0.78, permutation p=0.0002 \u2014 beats chance, passed_promote_floor=true. See /v1/forecast/asn-gnn/info.","model_meta":{"architecture":"GraphSAGE-2layer-h16","loocv_auc":0.7751,"n_labeled_total":97,"n_tier1_loocv":null,"passed_promote_floor":true,"perm_pvalue":0.0002,"promote_floor_auc":0.65,"version":"v1"},"raw_inputs":{"block_rate_180d":1.0,"block_rate_30d":1.0,"country_risk_tier":2,"log_degree":2.7081,"n_evidence_180d":545,"n_evidence_30d":184},"schema":"voidly-gnn-asn-forecast/v1","shutdown_probability":0.9858}