{"generated_at": "2026-10-04T18:45:38.719191", "metrics": {"architecture": "GraphSAGE-2layer-h16", "architecture_corrected_2026_08_01": "was 'GraphSAGE-2layer-h64'; hidden_dim in the same file has always been 16", "dropout": 0.5, "epochs": 60, "eval_label_rule": {"ambiguous_dropped": 8, "hi_intensity_threshold": 0.5, "min_rows": 20, "negative_if_frac_hi_lte": 0.25, "positive_if_frac_hi_gte": 0.6, "source": "censoredplanet signal_value"}, "eval_note": "loocv_auc / perm_pvalue / passed_promote_floor reflect the v2 re-evaluation: a genuine CensoredPlanet signal_value censorship label (62 ASNs that block probes vs 35 that pass them) scored under leakage-safe leave-one-COUNTRY-out CV with density+topology features only (signal-derived features dropped \u2014 see reeval_features_dropped_for_leakage). The live /v1/forecast/asn-gnn/{asn} score still comes from gnn_asn_forecast_v1.pkl, which was trained on the older 13-feature set; treat the per-ASN score as indicative and the reeval_v2 block as the audited performance claim.", "eval_protocol": "leave-one-COUNTRY-out (leakage-safe grouped leave-AS-out) on a genuine signal_value label", "feature_cols": ["n_evidence_30d", "n_evidence_180d", "block_rate_30d", "block_rate_180d", "n_unique_dates", "pct_dns_block", "pct_tcp_reset", "pct_outage", "pct_interference", "pct_block", "country_risk_tier", "log_degree", "has_evidence"], "graph_n_edges": 841064, "graph_n_nodes": 7060, "hidden_dim": 16, "honest_caveats": ["Re-evaluated 2026-05-22 with a GENUINE censorship label (CensoredPlanet signal_value: 62 ASNs that block probes vs 35 that let them through) and leakage-audited density+topology features. Leave-one-COUNTRY-out CV across 97 ASNs / 30 country folds: AUC 0.7751, permutation p=0.0002 (5000 perms). The GNN beats chance at p<0.05 \u2014 passed_promote_floor flipped to true.", "Plain leave-one-AS-out (same-country siblings stay in training): AUC 0.7645, p=0.0002.", "The old headline (AUC 0.80, n=6) was an underpowered CV on a label that had collapsed to a measurement-density flag \u2014 it is superseded by this evaluation.", "Per-ASN labels remain CensoredPlanet-only and sparse (97 ASNs). More labeled ASNs would tighten the estimate further."], "loocv_accuracy_at_0.5": 0.7216, "loocv_auc": 0.7751, "loocv_predictions": [{"asn": 5384, "country": "AE", "label": 1, "score": 0.9675572514533997}, {"asn": 6168, "country": "AE", "label": 0, "score": 0.8854526281356812}, {"asn": 15802, "country": "AE", "label": 1, "score": 0.9999983310699463}, {"asn": 20940, "country": "AE", "label": 0, "score": 0.5467635989189148}, {"asn": 25198, "country": "AE", "label": 0, "score": 0.3975096642971039}, {"asn": 208922, "country": "AE", "label": 0, "score": 0.9676738977432251}, {"asn": 29049, "country": "AZ", "label": 1, "score": 0.22863388061523438}, {"asn": 48830, "country": "AZ", "label": 1, "score": 0.9452638626098633}, {"asn": 23923, "country": "BD", "label": 0, "score": 0.4325246512889862}, {"asn": 38203, "country": "BD", "label": 1, "score": 0.8403658866882324}, {"asn": 45905, "country": "BD", "label": 1, "score": 0.4448074698448181}, {"asn": 55828, "country": "BD", "label": 1, "score": 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{"asn": 202660, "country": "UZ", "label": 1, "score": 0.6740133166313171}, {"asn": 204213, "country": "IR", "label": 1, "score": 0.8501819968223572}, {"asn": 206065, "country": "IR", "label": 1, "score": 0.7899960875511169}, {"asn": 207446, "country": "KZ", "label": 1, "score": 0.3110223412513733}, {"asn": 208922, "country": "AE", "label": 0, "score": 0.4913584589958191}, {"asn": 215540, "country": "TR", "label": 0, "score": 0.49313852190971375}, {"asn": 263239, "country": "HN", "label": 0, "score": 0.47577372193336487}, {"asn": 394695, "country": "IN", "label": 0, "score": 0.21991486847400665}], "lr": 0.01, "mean_score_gap": 0.2928, "n_country_folds": 30, "n_labeled_total": 97, "n_loocv_folds": 97, "n_tier1_loocv_DEPRECATED": 6, "passed_promote_floor": true, "perm_pvalue": 0.0002, "promote_floor_auc": 0.65, "reeval_feature_cols": ["n_evidence_30d", "n_evidence_180d", "n_unique_dates", "n_domains_tested", "log_n_evidence_180d", "country_risk_tier", "log_degree", "log_degree_p2p", "log_degree_provider"], "reeval_features_dropped_for_leakage": ["block_rate_30d", "block_rate_180d", "pct_dns_block", "pct_tcp_reset", "pct_outage", "pct_interference", "pct_block"], "reeval_v2": {"evaluated_at": "2026-05-22T12:43:57.620662Z", "leave_one_as_out": {"accuracy_at_0_5": 0.7216, "auc": 0.7645, "mean_score_gap": 0.2707, "n_neg": 35, "n_pos": 62, "n_scored": 97, "perm_auc_mean": 0.4997, "perm_auc_p95": 0.5987, "perm_pvalue": 0.0002, "protocol": "leave-one-AS-out"}, "leave_one_country_out": {"accuracy_at_0_5": 0.7216, "auc": 0.7751, "mean_score_gap": 0.2928, "n_neg": 35, "n_pos": 62, "n_scored": 97, "perm_auc_mean": 0.4998, "perm_auc_p95": 0.6005, "perm_pvalue": 0.0002, "protocol": "leave-one-COUNTRY-out"}, "n_labeled": 97, "n_neg": 35, "n_pos": 62, "verdict": "GENUINE VERDICT \u2014 SIGNIFICANT. With a real censorship label (signal_value-based, 62 pos / 35 neg) and leakage-audited density+topology features, leave-one-COUNTRY-out CV gives AUC 0.7751, permutation p=0.0002 (<0.05, 5000 perms, n=97 held-out ASNs / 30 country folds). The GNN beats chance \u2014 passed_promote_floor flipped true."}, "schema": "voidly-gnn-asn-forecast/v1", "seed": 42, "tier1_loocv_asns_DEPRECATED": [8895, 146812, 135473, 215597, 47541, 43727], "trained_at": "2026-05-21T04:58:09.589520Z", "version": "v1", "weight_decay": 0.0005}, "schema": "voidly-gnn-asn-info/v1", "summary": {"architecture": "GraphSAGE-2layer-h16", "loocv_auc": 0.7751, "n_labeled": 97, "n_tier1_loocv": null, "passed_promote_floor": true, "perm_pvalue": 0.0002, "promote_floor": 0.65}, "data_as_of": "2026-08-01T18:33:20.160374Z", "data_age_hours": 1536.2, "data_stale": true, "data_source_artifact": "/opt/voidly-ai/models/gnn_asn_forecast_v1.json", "data_freshness_note": "Any served_at/generated_at above is when this RESPONSE was assembled, not when the model ran. This artifact was last written 2026-08-01T18:33:20.160374Z (64.0 days ago). Cite data_as_of."}