{"algorithm": "XGBoost shared model with domain one-hot", "best_domain": {"loco_auc": 1.0, "name": "tiktok.com"}, "countries": ["CN", "RU", "IN", "VN", "ID", "SG", "TR", "AE", "BD", "TH", "EG", "MY", "PK", "SA", "KZ", "VE", "MM", "BY", "KH", "MA", "QA", "IR", "IQ", "HN", "AZ", "CU", "US", "KW", "TZ", "UZ", "CA", "FR", "BH", "JO", "ES", "DE", "GB", "BR", "JP", "NL", "ZA", "AU", "MX", "SE", "KR", "UG", "NG", "SY", "RW", "DZ"], "data_age_hours": 3278.0, "data_as_of": "2026-05-21T14:56:03.533871Z", "data_freshness_note": "Any served_at/generated_at above is when this RESPONSE was assembled, not when the model ran. This artifact was last written 2026-05-21T14:56:03.533871Z (136.6 days ago). Cite data_as_of.", "data_source_artifact": "[internal path]", "data_stale": true, "domains": ["twitter.com", "instagram.com", "telegram.org", "youtube.com", "signal.org", "facebook.com", "whatsapp.com", "protonvpn.com", "medium.com", "tiktok.com", "psiphon.ca", "bbc.com", "getlantern.org", "reddit.com", "nytimes.com", "theguardian.com", "substack.com", "tumblr.com", "google.com", "gemini.google.com", "chat.openai.com", "chatgpt.com", "claude.ai", "openai.com", "huggingface.co", "xvideos.com", "pornhub.com", "binance.com", "copilot.github.com", "skype.com", "messenger.com", "washingtonpost.com", "voanews.com", "rferl.org", "aljazeera.com", "expressvpn.com", "duckduckgo.com", "chat.mistral.ai", "perplexity.ai", "wechat.com", "vpngate.net", "chat.deepseek.com"], "feature_importance_top10": [{"feature": "n_block_7d", "gain": 0.350147215414233}, {"feature": "block_rate_7d", "gain": 0.3143718680883261}, {"feature": "anomaly_rate_7d", "gain": 0.11348354219159651}, {"feature": "domain_onehot (collapsed)", "gain": 0.04019944383807909}, {"feature": "is_weekend", "gain": 0.022500220127649146}, {"feature": "anomaly_rate_30d", "gain": 0.020170605309042914}, {"feature": "dow", "gain": 0.017224319130833082}, {"feature": "blocked_elsewhere_30d", "gain": 0.017210953617984213}, {"feature": "country_block_rate_7d", "gain": 0.013765918568081275}, {"feature": "block_rate_30d", "gain": 0.011105426904973433}], "honest_caveats": ["Single shared XGBoost across all (domain, country) pairs, with domain as one-hot. Thin-data domains borrow signal from data-rich ones, but per-domain AUC variance is wide.", "LOCO uses top 12 most-active countries; held-out predictions are pooled across folds per domain.", "Target is binary 'any block OR anomaly observation in next 7d on (domain, country) pair' \u2014 broader than 'confirmed-critical-only' because critical-level signals are sparse on a per-domain basis.", "Countries with zero historical evidence on a domain score the base rate via the feature-vector floor.", "Cross-country contagion feature (n_countries_blocked_30d) is the SAME for every country on a given (domain, date), so it cannot discriminate per-country within a day \u2014 it acts as a global 'is this domain hot right now' prior.", "The headline AUC (in-sample ~0.999 / LOCO ~0.999) measures whether an ALREADY-blocked (domain, country) pair STAYS blocked, not whether a NEW block will start: ~75% of kept pairs are positive and trailing anomaly-rate features approximate the label for persistently-blocked pairs. On status-TRANSITION days (the real forecasting signal) honest AUC is ~0.55-0.65. Use this to monitor known-blocked pairs, not to predict new blocks. (ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md, per-domain forecast.)"], "horizon_days": 7, "in_sample_auc": 0.999100965335758, "isotonic_calibration": {"brier_post": 0.04135927854212847, "brier_pre": 0.06075959688766865, "improvement": 0.01940031834554018, "n_calibration": 21551}, "loco_mean_auc_top_domains": 0.9986715254430983, "loco_median_auc_top_domains": 0.9993823311969676, "loco_n_folds": 12, "loco_per_domain": {"bbc.com": {"auc": 0.99907707253886, "n": 852, "n_pos": 772}, "binance.com": {"auc": 0.9999999999999999, "n": 852, "n_pos": 360}, "chat.deepseek.com": {"auc": null, "n": 13, "n_pos": 0}, "chat.mistral.ai": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 30, "n_pos": 17}, "chat.openai.com": {"auc": 0.9989417989417989, "n": 326, "n_pos": 270}, "chatgpt.com": {"auc": 0.9991765480895916, "n": 333, "n_pos": 264}, "claude.ai": {"auc": 0.9974733437768457, "n": 334, "n_pos": 257}, "facebook.com": {"auc": 0.9993043132578016, "n": 852, "n_pos": 774}, "gemini.google.com": {"auc": 0.985622902020394, "n": 334, "n_pos": 277}, "getlantern.org": {"auc": 0.9990889816471212, "n": 852, "n_pos": 774}, "google.com": {"auc": 0.9990932642487047, "n": 852, "n_pos": 772}, "huggingface.co": {"auc": null, "n": 154, "n_pos": 154}, "instagram.com": {"auc": 0.9991274928774929, "n": 852, "n_pos": 780}, "medium.com": {"auc": 0.9994234943027672, "n": 852, "n_pos": 776}, "nytimes.com": {"auc": 0.9998099461514096, "n": 852, "n_pos": 770}, "openai.com": {"auc": 0.9927570461344671, "n": 334, "n_pos": 261}, "perplexity.ai": {"auc": null, "n": 17, "n_pos": 17}, "pornhub.com": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 852, "n_pos": 360}, "protonvpn.com": {"auc": 0.9995252306022789, "n": 852, "n_pos": 776}, "psiphon.ca": {"auc": 0.9995362088385344, "n": 852, "n_pos": 774}, "reddit.com": {"auc": 0.999762432689262, "n": 852, "n_pos": 770}, "signal.org": {"auc": 0.9988130765056973, "n": 852, "n_pos": 776}, "substack.com": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 852, "n_pos": 768}, "telegram.org": {"auc": 0.999779571351058, "n": 852, "n_pos": 776}, "theguardian.com": {"auc": 0.9996674057649668, "n": 852, "n_pos": 770}, "tiktok.com": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 852, "n_pos": 770}, "tumblr.com": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 852, "n_pos": 768}, "twitter.com": {"auc": 0.999341168091168, "n": 852, "n_pos": 780}, "whatsapp.com": {"auc": 0.9984193705273398, "n": 852, "n_pos": 778}, "xvideos.com": {"auc": 1.0, "n": 852, "n_pos": 360}, "youtube.com": {"auc": 0.9990620440491906, "n": 852, "n_pos": 778}}, "model_id": "per-domain-forecast-v1", "n_countries": 48, "n_domains": 31, "n_positives": 31795, "n_rows": 42425, "passed_promote_floor": true, "promote_floor": 0.65, "temporal_eval": {"ap": 0.9944392019979604, "auc": 0.9832836410147128, "brier": 0.06075959688766865, "holdout_days": 30, "n_test": 21551, "n_test_pos": 15811, "n_train": 20874}, "trained_at": "2026-05-21T14:55:19.100716Z", "worst_domain": {"loco_auc": 0.985622902020394, "name": "gemini.google.com"}}