{"body_schema":{"country":"ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 (required)","incident_type":"censorship|mixed (default censorship)","severity":"critical|warning (default critical)"},"censoring_rule":"status=confirmed AND last_seen>first_seen ⇒ event observed; else right-censored","endpoint":"POST /v1/forecast/duration","honest_caveats":["REAL generalization is c_index_test = 0.5455 (~0.55 ≈ NEAR-RANDOM). The c_index_train 0.7684532204983545 is an OPTIMISTIC in-sample number and must NOT be quoted as the model's accuracy.","High right-censoring (~78% of incidents never resolve in the observation window), so duration is weakly identified.","Per-country median predictions are ~constant on the test set (non-discriminative) — see per_country_median_pred_vs_observed_test_set.","Use this as a rough, low-confidence duration PRIOR, not a calibrated time-to-resolution forecast."],"model":{"c_index_test":0.5455,"c_index_train":0.7684532204983545,"censoring_rate":0.7842565597667639,"class":"RandomSurvivalForest","feature_names":["country_risk_tier","first_seen_year","first_seen_month","prior_shutdowns_count_24mo","continent_Africa","continent_Americas","continent_Asia","continent_Europe","continent_Oceania","severity_critical","severity_warning","type_censorship","type_mixed"],"n_events_total":74,"n_test":86,"n_total":343,"n_train":257,"name":"shutdown_duration_rsf_v1","passed_promote_floor":false,"promote_c_floor":0.65,"promote_n_floor":200,"trained_at":"2026-05-21T12:01:30.451711Z"},"per_country_median_pred_vs_observed_test_set":{"AZ":{"events_observed":0,"n":7,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"BY":{"events_observed":1,"n":3,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"CN":{"events_observed":0,"n":2,"obs_median":43835.99986111111,"pred_median":215.9997222222222},"DZ":{"events_observed":0,"n":2,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":3347.999861111111},"IR":{"events_observed":2,"n":5,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":431.9997222222222},"JO":{"events_observed":0,"n":2,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":8999.999861111111},"KZ":{"events_observed":2,"n":2,"obs_median":227.9998611111111,"pred_median":1319.9997222222223},"MA":{"events_observed":1,"n":2,"obs_median":3132,"pred_median":5100},"MM":{"events_observed":0,"n":2,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"PK":{"events_observed":1,"n":9,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"RU":{"events_observed":1,"n":5,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"TH":{"events_observed":2,"n":3,"obs_median":119.99972222222222,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"TZ":{"events_observed":1,"n":7,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":695.9997222222222},"UZ":{"events_observed":0,"n":7,"obs_median":24,"pred_median":119.99972222222222},"VE":{"events_observed":2,"n":3,"obs_median":1262,"pred_median":695.9997222222222}},"permutation_importance_top":[["first_seen_year",0.023183391003460153],["prior_shutdowns_count_24mo",0.022837370242214494],["first_seen_month",0.009861591695501692],["severity_critical",0.005536332179930758],["continent_Europe",0.0031141868512110315],["severity_warning",0.0020761245674740026],["continent_Africa",0.0010380622837369736],["type_mixed",0.0008650519031141446],["continent_Asia",0.0006920415224913156],["country_risk_tier",0.0005190311418684646],["continent_Oceania",0],["type_censorship",-0.0025951557093426003],["continent_Americas",-0.004325259515570989]],"training_filter":"incidents.incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed')"}